Sources from the economic cabinet are encouraged to project an improvement in GDP of at least 5% by 2022. They consider that it could climb to 7%, based on the activity of the first four months. “We could grow 10% if we had US$30 billion more in the Central Bank, the problem is the dollars”An official source told Ámbito.
Despite the fact that exports are at historical values, the economic team explained that the trade surplus will be well below the $12 billion projected at the beginning of the year. They explain that it is due to the effect of the war and the post-pandemic, due to the unprecedented prices in energy, supplies and logistics. In April, imports closed below the record of March, but again high, close to US $ 7 billionanticipated official sources.
Unlike what was expected at the beginning of the year, the limitations to growth in 2022 will not be so much due to covid or energy. Regarding the coronavirus, the Minister of Health, Carla Vizzotti assured the economic team that they should not worry about the increase in cases, because vaccination makes it milder. Concerning energy, the concern decreased after the agreement reached with Bolivia for the provision of gas.
In any case, the Ministry of Productive Development held meetings this Wednesday afternoon with the head of the Argentine Industrial Union, Daniel Funes de Rioja, who He approached them with a proposal to coordinate plant shutdowns in case of possible shortages.
The unavoidable variable to monitor that they admit could impact growth is inflation, if it remains at these levels. They hope that May will drop to values of 4% and that it will begin to stabilize when the shock is “absorbed” of the rise in commodities in February due to the war. In fact, in the first week of May, despite the fact that inflation was 1.2%, according to the consulting firm Eco Go, the category of baked goods, cereals and pasta fell 1.2% due to the start-up of the trust. Although with the photo of the current values they estimate that it will close 2022 at 60%, they hope that it will “loosen” and may be below.
Even in this context of high inflation, which will be ratified this Thursday by the Indec for April, the Government considers that a traditional shock plan would not work as an anchor, as happened with the Austral plan. “There was 30% monthly inflation and everything was indexed. Here the indexing mechanisms are misaligned, luckily”, they told within the Government.
Despite the fact that the agreement with the IMF does not have an anchor (salaries, inflation or tariffs), within the Ministry of Economy they consider that it will achieve “anchor” expectations. Although the Government repeats that the salary has to beat inflation, and assures that “companies have room to raise them”, they monitor that “they do not enter a spiral”.
export credits
For the Government, the main limitation for economic growth is the “external restriction”. For this reason, this Wednesday the Ministry of Productive Development launched credits for $70 billion to increase exports of SMEs, and substitute imports.
There will be a line for Boosting Exports, for $50 billion, for agriculture and industry and another for Substitution of Imports, for $20 billion, for laboratories, auto parts, mining, oil and footwear. They will be granted by financial entities, with credits of between $100 and $500 million, with a rate of 35% at 60 months.
The plan was presented to dozens of SMEs at the Ministry of Productive Development. “The announcement comes to resolve a key issue, to have a model of sustainable economic growth. We seek that the development of the productive sector contributes to providing macroeconomic sustainability, exporting more and saving foreign exchange from imports”, assured Matías Kulfas, holder of the portfolio.
In 2021, SME exports were US$10.8 billion, the highest data in the last 6 years, according to the SME secretary, Guillermo Merediz. “There has been a decrease in exporting SMEs in recent years, and for the first time in 2021 more were incorporated, there were 400 that exported or did so again,” Merediz said at the event. In the first row were the president of the UIA, Daniel Funes de Rioja, the head of CAME, Alfredo González, and the president of the Chamber of Clothing, Claudio Drescher.
Source: Ambito
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