Beyond the fact that the rise was strongly driven by products whose prices are disrupted by the war between Russia and Ukraine, such as oils, cereals and bread that had jumps of between 8% and 15%, they also identify in the Government a persistent element linked to expectations. “If one month inflation is 5%, it is most likely that the following month all economic actors behave as if these increases were to repeat themselves. Thus, it is a never-ending cycle”, synthesized an official.
To disarm that cruising speed, which is getting higher and higher, the Executive commits to dialogue. As has happened on other occasions, the Economy Minister is planning a meeting with businessmen, which could then be replicated, but adding the presence of unions under the premise of reaching an agreement on prices and wages. As Ámbito learned, the central objective of the call is to break the inertia to “de-index” the economy.
For these types of meetings, Guzmán usually has the presence of executives from multinational companies. Laura Barnator (Unilever), Antonio Aracre (Syngenta), Sergio Kaufman (Accenture) and Gabriela Renaudo (Visa), are some of those who participate in the lunches that take place on the terrace of the Palacio de Hacienda.
A series of businessmen from different sectors, consulted by this means, agreed that the formation of expectations is one of the central factors of the inflationary process. However, more and more firms point out the difficulties caused by restrictions on access to foreign currency for imported inputs. Even from some sectors they affirm that since the purchase quota is already exhausted or about to be exhausted, they calculate part of their costs based on financial dollars.
With everything, in the Government expect a deceleration of inflation slower than desirable. The most optimistic officials speak of a fall to 4% of the index for this month. The main consultants anticipate a higher figure, Orlando Ferreres y Asociados detected increases of 3% in the first week and projects increases of more than 5% throughout the period. In the weekly measurement of food carried out by LCG, a jump of 5.4% month-on-month was seen for the first seven days and the latest work by Eco Go, directed by Marina Dal Poggetto, estimates a consolidated 5% for the current month.
Source: Ambito
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