Last month, the primary deficit of the public sector was just over $60,000 millions, according to the consulting firm, which marks a drop of $40,000 million compared to March. If the private forecast is fulfilled, the breach of the first quarter will reach something like $255,000 million, equivalent to 0.3 points of GDP. The committed goal for the second quarter of the year is $566,000 million.
If so, Guzmán will be able to show the IMF officials with whom he maintains communication via zoom, that Argentina’s fiscal result would be improved in real terms, limiting the margins to include as income the result of financial operations of the State.
Guido Lorenzo, economist at LCG, explained to Ámbito that “We made an estimate based on debt placements and it gave us a 10% incidence, which is also lower because tax revenues are growing in relative terms.”
It should be remembered that in April the Palacio de Hacienda did not complete the total placements that it had planned, due to the increase in investor distrust.
LCG estimates that public sector revenues registered a nominal growth of 80% while expenses presented an increase of 87%, “which implies an acceleration with respect to the previous dynamics”.
The consultant considers that in addition to the rise in subsidies to the Administrative Company of the Electricity Wholesale Market (CAMMESA), which received some $90.8 billion, an increase of 180%, the income policy being carried out by the Government began to have an impact. . It is about the $6,000 bonus to retirees of the minimum and the Food Card that represented expenses of $36,000 million.
LCG states that the deficit goal for the second quarter “will surely be corrected” based on the “scenario of higher inflation not foreseen in the agreement”, when it was approved at the end of March.
Guzmán has insistently repeated in recent weeks that he is not planning to change anything. As did Ilan Goldfajn, the IMF’s Western Hemisphere director, who also confirmed the targets. However, in the Government they admit that there may be modifications. In the case of the targets for the cash-based primary fiscal deficit, the numbers could rise in nominal terms, but in GDP terms it would still remain at the 2.5% forecast from the start.
On Thursday, President Alberto Fernández -during a contact he had with the press in Paris, within the framework of the European tour- anticipated that the agreement reached at the end of March with the multilateral organization will contain changes by virtue of the war unleashed between Russia and Ukraine, which is impacting the global economy. FFernández said that the agency is reviewing all the agreements with the countries and this “will also be applicable” to Argentina.
From both parties they anticipated the possibility of making changes in certain points, although not in the fundamental goals, sources quoted by the Telam agency indicated.
Source: Ambito
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