The CEU says that “the outlook for the rest of the year continues to show some elements of uncertainty, both in terms of costs and inflation, financing and difficulties around currencies”. The report states that the war between Russia and Ukraine deepened the problems in global supply chains that were already present before due to the pandemic. It also indicates that developed economies are implementing contractionary monetary policies to try to curb inflation.
According to the CEU, if the seasonally adjusted index accumulated between January and March is taken, and compared with the last quarter of last year, a growth of only 0.1% was registered. And it is also noted that recent interest rate hikes that the Central Bank is carrying out, within the framework of the agreement with the IMF to try to equalize the rate of inflation“could negatively impact the financing of the private sectorwhich fell in April at a rate of -6.5% year-on-year”.
“Industrial activity is at a turning point after the strong recovery during 2021,” say UIA economists.
Eugenio Marí, chief economist of the Fundación Libertad y Progreso, told Ámbito what “The economy is peaking as indicated by the latest data from INDEC in industry and construction”. “Forward we see a context of uncertainty. Today, in Argentina, a businessman is not sure that they will let him export. There are no incentives for investment”, he considered. Y estimated that the level of economic activity is similar to that between 2017 and 2018prior to the crisis that led the government of Mauricio Macri to seek help from the IMF.
On the other hand the Center for Production Studies (CEPXXI), which depends on the Ministry of Productive Development, He has a much more optimistic look. “After a February with the highest production levels for that month since 2016, in March industrial activity continued to operate above the last three years”, says the CEP in its latest Productive Outlook. The report indicates that “the Argentine industrial recovery continues to stand out in the international comparison. From a sample of 12 countries, the growth of March 2022 compared to March 2019 (+15.4%) places Argentina as the country that increased its industrial production the most after China (+18.5%)”.
Meanwhile, as reported by the Center for Economic Studies Orlando Ferreres, “March again brought negative figures for the manufacturing industry in the measurement without seasonality, showing the difficulties that we will see during the rest of the year to overcome the level reached towards the end of last year”. For Ferreres, factory production in March rose just 0.6% year-on-year.
Analysts warn that in the second half of the year there may be a complication for Argentina on the side of the global context. If the United States Federal Reserve (FED) continues with its policy of raising interest rates, it is foreseeable that commodity prices will fall, which will affect Argentina.
Source: Ambito
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