The truth is that on Wall Street, the main investment bankers warn their fellow citizens that the worst is yet to come, in reference to inflation and the impact of the rate hike. As for the crack, not everything seems to be lost, bridges always appear. A banker threw a riddle: What unites Mauricio and Alberto? His new “Durán Barba”. It is that “Los Raffos”, Guillermo and Juliana, Mauri’s new gurus participated in the presidential campaigns of, for example, Marco Ominami, close friend of Alberto (and even Eduardo Duhalde’s). Of course, it will be necessary to see how they digest it within JxC, and in the PRO itself.
The truth is that when it comes to campaigning, Hernán Lacunza, with his “reprofiling” not only earned a place in history but is also an obligatory reference in every financial meeting. The fear of another “reprofiling” of the debt in pesos grows like the stock of Leliq. Every time someone asks or interrogates about it, Lacunza’s name comes out, fried. As was said in an interesting virtual meeting of a local manager, the 2023 reprofiling could be the next self-fulfilling prophecy. For now, at the Palacio de Hacienda they adjusted the menu of options to the palate of the market.
Thus, in yesterday’s tender, the two baskets offered partially satisfied the placement needs for an adequate term, not as long as in the previous ones, which were up to 2024. Also in favor, as a portfolio manager explained to colleagues, was the additional attraction from the drop in prices, which gave rise to offering better yields. Regarding the recent wave of bailouts, mainly in the FCI CERs, they explained from said manager that there was some payment of taxes, the same to go directly to Ledes, short-term and more liquid. But something also went to the MEP and the Linked dollar.
From Washington came a reading on global momentum:
1) Forecasts show the global economy teetering on the brink of recession as the war in Ukraine, Covid-19 lockdowns in China and a hawkish Fed weigh on activity
2) The increased odds of a global recession have major repercussions for investor psychology, making markets less tolerant of what they now see as unwarranted political normalization
3) This raises the risk of a market tantrum like the one that followed the Fed hike in December 2018, when markets saw the Fed’s policy tightening as out of step with the escalating trade war
4) The subsequent sell-off in the S&P 500 ended that rally cycle and the Fed’s balance sheet sell-off.
In short, the increasing odds of a global recession raise the risk of another market tantrum now. That’s why everyone is looking for a Recession Manual that Goldman circulated to clients with a list of 20 actions to defend themselves.
Source: Ambito
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