The market is in the hands of the peso curve

The market is in the hands of the peso curve

A lot of noise linked to the supply and demand of foreign exchange for services, in addition to freight and tourism. It is that with a gap of 80% it is logical that over and under billing are the order of the day. We will have to see how the BCRA reacts if the pressure on reserves continues and on top of that the goal is not reached with the IMF.

The same happens with the data of inflation May, everyone prays that it starts with “5”. Preliminary private estimates for the first and second week of the month show a CPI between 5.5 and 6%. A lot of concern about the speed of increase in public spending, above all, for the fear that inflation escalates to another stage.

In a rural-financial meeting, the replacement of Secretary of Domestic Trade was obviously discussed. All conspicuous eyes point to the milling industry, as Feletti’s executioner, since apparently, according to the vision of financiers linked to the sector, the failure of the milling trust was the trigger, or excuse, for the departure of the Feletti accountant. In this regard, a man from the sector gave a piece of information to understand the flour price mess: today out of every 10 bags sold, only 2 are subsidized.

The exchange quickly turned to politics. While the palace fights continue in the FdT, and the polls continue to ask about Cristina and Mauricio in 2023, a renowned international analyst summed up the context: everyone should look at what is happening in the region and in other parts of the Western world where it is believed that the trend is only towards polarization (from soft to hard), and what is happening is that plus a fragmentation (from few to many) and not bipartisan. The polarization is ideological (the parts are more separated) and the fragmentation of number. Those who win the elections do so with a low percentage, and since the congresses are defined in the first round, they have low governability.

In Argentina the polarization is already there, it is the crack. But now the fragmentation will come, where the unit is no longer a business, the incentive has changed. There will not be two coalitions that add up to 88% (in the region it is 33 to 55%) as in 2015. The hawks are more than the doves, so if Cristina and Mauricio go alone without fronts, they can have 20 to 25%, and thus enter the ballot. They will be the most voted minorities. Unity without change is useless, for the hawks of the PRO.

In this scenario, the Javier Milei and the left lose because the cake where to eat is reduced. The problem is Congress. Fed up with politics, two managers commented on the Musk-Twitter case. Investors are suing Elon for manipulating the company’s share price downward during the course of his involvement with the company. They allege that Musk saved millions by not disclosing that he had bought more than 5% of Twitter before March 14 and then went on to buy up to 9.2% once he drove down the share price. The manipulation worked, Twitter has lost $8 billion in valuation since the purchase was announced.

Source: Ambito

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