Add to that a detail: the Central Bank will close May with US$935 million in favor. But the monetary entity has been finding it difficult to buy dollars, since so far in 2022, the net balance in favor barely reaches US$1,047 million, a figure that looks much lower than the US $ 5,728 million acquired in the same period last year.
Reasons? The payment of the invoice energy import and the settlement of debt maturities that the companies have, in addition to the essential imports to sustain the productive apparatus and a little more than the tourist dollar. Oh, also something else: per dollar saved, four times more greenbacks are now purchased than was demanded a year ago. Guzmán knows everything, but he doesn’t say much. He prefers voluntarism and political rhetoric as he manages his relationship with Georgieva. He trusts that, if a question arises, he will be able to solve it. President Fernandez ponders the same thing.
What is relevant in all this is the very definition of the Government and the IMF, of what they have in mind for the country: the economy has to grow at a speed that is compatible with the objective of accumulation of reserves, where, for the Fund, the first thing is the accumulation of reserves… Therefore, in the next review of the body, the conditions will weigh. Inflation in May could slow down, somewhat, the previous levels of March and April. But in the year, the projections mark an average that will be above 4% per month. Not good for the Argentine peso, whose demand is weakened by this argument. The intended compensation is the same as in the rest of the world, an increase in rates. The BCRA has already been five in the year, took the reference rate to 49%, which shows a fixed-term bank deposit would offer an annual return of 60%. For the end, it should be remembered that Minister Guzmán himself had approved a soft landing for economic growth with the IMF. He had sealed a growth of 4% for this year (it is the official projection of the IMF), followed by a much more meager one, of just 3% for 2023.
It must be remembered that the organization’s program with Argentina foresees a GDP expansion of between 3.5% and 4.5% in 2022; between 2.5% and 3.5% in 2023 and between 2.5% and 3% in 2024. This forecast seems to be designed to measure the foreign exchange savings necessary to accumulate reserves and the low intensity in matter of the engine of consumption in the GDP, so as not to demand additional imports. In some way, and in these aspects, the government continues along the path it envisioned a few months ago, despite the war, which will put more pressure from now on to fulfill what was promised to Kristalina Georgieva, the managing director of the IMF.
Source: Ambito
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