9-euro ticket: The transport associations are so pessimistic

The pre-sale for the nine-euro ticket is running, and at the end of this week it should be valid on local public transport throughout Germany. The providers are expecting an enormous rush – at least that is what the effort that Deutsche Bahn is running suggests. “We are preparing and are literally moving everything we have – trains, buses, service staff,” says DB Regional CEO Jürgen Sandvoß. The group expects the number of passengers to increase.

Therefore, from June 1st, 50 additional DB Region trains will be chugging through Germany. According to the company, that makes 250 additional journeys. According to this, 60,000 additional seats in regional and S-Bahn trains would be available every day. “Since more leisure and excursion trips will be undertaken on the upcoming public holiday weekends and during the summer months, DB is increasing staff in trains and stations, especially along tourist routes,” Deutsche Bahn promises in its press release.

But is it all worth it?

Maybe short term. In the long term, however, the nine-euro ticket could become a flop – believes the Association of German Transport Companies (VDV). Representatives doubt that many people will permanently switch to buses and trains. “I see the ticket quite positively. But I don’t have great expectations that it will lead to a massive change,” says VDV President Ingo Wortmann of the editorial network Germany. “All previous experiences with particularly cheap public transport show that the offer has to be right first, the price is secondary.”

Short-term chaos, long-term price hikes

In the long term, the prices in particular could become a problem, because, according to Wortmann, they could rise significantly after the campaign period. It is the fault of the federal government, which refuses compensation payments for fuel prices. “In the medium term, we will have to turn the missing funds over to fares or limit the offer,” he tells the RND newspapers. “So ticket prices will continue to rise – not directly on September 1st, but in the next price rounds.” In order to make transport climate-friendly, transport companies would need significantly more money from the federal and state governments. “Unfortunately, we then get into the situation where people who are already burdened have to pay more for their journeys.”

But according to the VDV President, the action is also problematic in the short term. He doesn’t want to “talk about chaos”, but expects a lot of full trains and buses. In particular, routes to leisure destinations such as Sylt, the Baltic Sea coast or the Bavarian Oberland could be affected. “When the trains are very full, there is certainly a risk of a tense atmosphere among travelers and passengers.” Attacks on employees are also possible “in the absolute extreme case”.

The railway and transport union (EVG) also warns of this. Overcrowded trains and possible evictions of trains, platforms or entire stations are conceivable, especially on the Pentecost weekend. “The Pentecost weekend will be a real stress test for the railways,” says the deputy chairman of the EVG, Martin Burkert, in the “Rheinische Post”. Excursion traffic in particular could push the rail system to its limits.

Emergency plans for the nine-euro ticket

That’s why there are already first emergency plans – “if there are too many people on a platform, it will be cleared by the federal police so that trains can enter safely.” If train stations are about to be overcrowded, they would be closed. And crowded trains would have to be cleared. That has already happened, according to the union representative. In the past few days alone, ICE trains in Nuremberg and Frankfurt have been evacuated twice because they are too heavy. This is also possible with local trains. “If the total weight, including far too many passengers, is too high, the train cannot move. Safety always has priority.”

Burkert is concerned about disabled passengers with wheelchairs and cyclists. “Rural mobility aids may not be available to the extent needed to assist wheelchair users.” In addition, it is becoming more difficult for disabled people to get in and then to find an adequate place. “I can only appeal to all fellow passengers to be considerate – among themselves and even more so for the weaker ones.”

When it comes to cyclists, Burkert fears that entire groups will be stranded. “We only have limited capacity for bicycles or e-bikes. You can’t completely rule out the possibility that a group will get to their destination by train but not be allowed to board with their bicycles and e-bikes on the return trip. That would of course be great regrettable,” he told the “Rheinische Post”.

Federal Transport Minister Volker Wissing (FDP) rejects all fears. “Until now, people have always complained that too few people use the buses and trains. I’m happy when more people use them,” says Wissing in an interview with the “Frankfurter Allgemeine Sonntagszeitung”. Incidentally, “compared to the time before Corona, the utilization is only 80 percent”. So there is “some air left”.

With the 9-euro monthly ticket, passengers can use local public transport throughout Germany in June, July and August. The tickets are part of the relief package from the traffic light coalition because of the high energy prices and should also be an incentive to continue using public transport.

The first research projects are already underway

The nine-euro ticket is part of the relief package of the traffic light coalition. From June to August, citizens can use local and regional public transport throughout Germany for nine euros per month. Long-distance trains and buses are excluded. An additional ticket must be purchased for bicycles. This relieves the burden on millions of commuters with subscriptions in particular – because they are much cheaper than normal monthly passes. According to industry information, this should be regulated via reduced direct debit or reimbursement of the difference. It should be similar for semester or job tickets.

Various universities throughout Germany are investigating how the action is received by citizens. The surveys are already underway. At the same time, extensive market research is planned. According to information from the Federal Ministry of Transport, an evaluation was agreed with the federal states. The survey is organized by the Association of German Transport Companies together with Deutsche Bahn. During and after the campaign period from June to August, the use of various customer groups is to be surveyed nationwide – among other things on travel behavior, reasons and barriers to use, price perception and satisfaction.

The results should also go to a federal-state working group that is developing proposals for an “expansion and modernization pact” for public transport. Federal Minister Volker Wissing (FDP) and the federal states want to discuss this in the autumn. In addition to the central evaluation, the transport associations and the federal states can also do their own market research on site.

So far, the nine-euro ticket has not been a slow seller. According to its own statements, Deutsche Bahn alone has sold 2.7 million tickets so far.

Sources:DPA