For his part, Emiliano Anselmi, head of macroeconomics at Portfolio Personal Inversiones, warned about the decoupling between the CCL and the monetary base since the end of January, due to the agreement with the IMF and carry trade operations. “If you look at the evolution of the CCL and the private M3, which is a monetary aggregate, the number of pesos is 24% ahead of the evolution of the free dollar and the CCL, so we see that there are too many pesos for the level that handles the CCL. Likewise, the price of bonds, since the announcement of the agreement with the IMF at the end of January, has fallen by 12%, while the price of the peso has risen 11%, that is, they are two risky assets in Argentina, but one falls and the other rises. In that sense, there is an incorrect one, which indicates that financial dollars are cheap”.
Anselmi explains that one of the factors that sustains this stability is the carry trade. “Many investors sold dollars and positioned themselves in pesos taking advantage of the rates. The problem is that when you want to realize the gain, you make a reverse movement, and the seller buys dollars, which puts pressure on prices again. The great unknown is whether it will be sustained in June. You can’t guess the timing, so the dollar can continue to flatten or it can rise sharply as it has in recent days, when prices shot up $25, from the $44 it had lost after the agreement with the IMF,” he said. the.
The economist Julián Grancharoff agreed with the analysis. “It is a great unknown if the carry trade will continue in June or if they will begin to close positions. I see two factors of uncertainty that are going to define this situation, and therefore will have an impact on the prices of the financiers. On the one hand, June is a key month for the dynamics of international reserves, it is going to be a month of full harvest liquidation, but the BCRA is not being able to accumulate, in fact, it managed to buy approximately US$3,000 million less than last year, when the harvest is greatest. Likewise, another factor that is going to influence is the second review with the IMF, and the doubts regarding the fulfillment of the goals, which generates doubts about the sustainability of the agreement, and can generate even greater exchange rate uncertainty,” said the analyst.
For his part, Sergio Chouza, director of the Sarandí Consulting firm, observed with a view to the second semester that “the part of the year with the best seasonality in terms of liquidation of the oilseed complex is coming to an end, and this may have an impact on prices, since the fact having an expectation of greater robustness in reserves calms dollarizing pressures. In addition to the fact that the buying balance of the Central was not satisfactory, it can generate even greater expectations of devaluation and pressure on financial prices”.
Source: Ambito
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