Heading to 2023
What is heard most about the ruling party is tired of the fight for power that has been going on for more than two years. While on the opposition side, in addition to the Milei tsunami, there is a certain haste in the fight for the presidential candidacies. The concerns of the people go through another lifeline. And if politicians looked at the numbers from the latest polls, they would be alarmed at the widespread unease.
Inflation
There is a lot of concern about the fall in the demand for money, due to the logical fear of spiraling. One of the main local consultants, which has been monitoring inflation for more than 20 years, is giving it less than 5% in May. It is worth noting that in recent months it has already been giving it below the official INDEC data. But no serious economist forecasts that inflation this year will be far from 70%, since the monetary issue will be in that order, so the annual CPI is unlikely to be 45/50%, as the Government bellows. In this regard, the mea culpa of the head of the US Treasury, Janet Yellen, was much commented on, that she had no hesitation in confessing that she had been wrong with the trajectory of inflation. Hence, some managers with ties to Wall Street replicated the suspicions that triggered the meeting between Biden and Powell in the White House for almost two hours. Has the President told Jerome Powel to turn around in September? So take all the blame. We will see.
IMF
Who cares about meeting the goals? Launched an economist linked to one of the leading consulting firms. If what will rule the game will be reality. The goals can be met, which is doubtful, and everything can fall apart. And the IMF knows it, that’s why it doesn’t press and accompanies. At some point he will ask for more neatness and control but not this year.
The world
Uncontrolled inflation is a fuse in the social powder keg, and no one wants to light it. And it seems that Pakistan, seeing the Argentine experience, is requesting help from the IMF of 6 times more than what was granted. Why It Matters: Pakistan, a nuclear power with more than 165 short- and medium-range warheads, is facing possible economic collapse, with an inflation rate of more than 13.4% (double the official CPI). . It has foreign debt maturing for US$21 billion and has turned to the IMF with whom it has an agreement signed in 2019 for US$6 billion and now wants to expand it to US$36 billion to stay afloat.
Ukraine and Russia could not be left out of the Zoom agenda. And as Kissinger said in Davos, in his realistic view, it is not advisable to kick Moscow out of Europe and even less to push it towards China, so Ukraine should think about territorial cessions. It did not sit well with the global elites gathered in Davos, commented an analyst who follows these meetings. The truth is that the scenario that is being seen is the one anticipated by Biden and Johnson before the Russian invasion: if this happens it will be a long war, it will be a “great Chechnya” in reference to the Chechen conflict that took years but finally had the Russians as winners. Something that the Ukrainian authorities should remember. For now, a globalization of war is ruled out.
Source: Ambito
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