To determine the winners, this international consulting firm evaluated the accuracy of the forecasts submitted by more than 350 institutions to its surveys, over the course of 22 months. To calculate the accuracy ratings of the experts’ forecasts, the firm took into consideration 6 main macroeconomic indicators evaluated, such as GDP (activity), fiscal balance, inflation, interest rate, exchange rate and current account.
At a general level, the big winners were the economists from the Eco Go consultancy led by Marina Dal Poggeto and Sebastián Menescaldi, with the analyst in charge of Sofía Suardi.
The second position was occupied by OJF & Asociados, which is the consulting firm founded by Orlando Ferreres. And in third place was ABECEB, a consultancy created by Dante Sica.
Inflation
As for “inflation”, those who were most correct in their forecasts were the bank analysts. In this case, Santander led followed by BBVA Argentina and Itaú Unibanco.
Dollar
The economist who most deciphered the price of the wholesale “exchange rate” was, first of all, C&T Asesores, a consulting firm founded by Camilo Tiscornia and María Castiglioni Cotter. It was followed by Goldman Sachs and Fitch Solutions.
Increase
Among the main indicators referring to the Argentine economy, in “growth (GDP)” the consulting firm Gabriel Rubinstein y Asociados led, followed by Eco Go and Banco Supervielle.
To identify the best forecasters, FocusEconomics clarified that it analyzed projections submitted to its monthly survey over the course of 22 months, where each analyst must have submitted a minimum number of forecasts during the given period.
To evaluate the precision of the data, for example in the projection for the GDP of 2021, the forecasts compiled between January 2020 and October 2021 were taken into consideration. Thus, the results that were used for the comparison with the forecasts correspond to the first official estimate, whose publication varies according to the frequency of the indicator. Meanwhile, it is reported that the absolute error, which is the absolute difference between the individual forecast and the price result, is not discounted.
“Therefore, an error at the beginning of our forecast cycle (January 2020) has the same weight as an error at the end of the cycle (October 2021),” they detailed from FocusEconomics.
In short, it is completed that the panelists are classified according to the average of the absolute errors during the last 22 months. So that the best ranked analyst is the one with the lowest average error.
Source: Ambito
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