Within time deposits, UVA-adjusted time deposits stood out as the most dynamic. Despite the fact that in May they slowed down by 5.3 points compared to the variation in April (5.5% monthly), they gained much more ground in the case of retailers, “explaining this type of retail adjustable placements for 26% of the growth monthly nominal. Likewise, the report details that, of the total growth of fixed terms in the month, they ended up contributing 7%.
Matthias de Lucaeconomist at LCG, explained that “UVA fixed terms continue to grow strongly. The slowdown compared to April is because March and April were two months with a lot of inflation, which encouraged the constitution of these instruments. In May, they also grew, only it slowed down because the inflation expectations for May and June fell, so after the spike in March and April, they continue to grow, but somewhat calmer”.
On expectations going forward, Lucio Garay Mendezeconomist at Echo Go, He pointed out that “with this level of nominality and a Central Bank that runs behind inflation, we expect traditional fixed terms to remain stable while those tied to inflation continue to grow.”
Also, from LCG, They considered that “in a context of rising inflation and with expectations that are difficult to anchor in the short term, we understand that CER-adjusted deposits will continue to gain share to the extent that projections of higher inflation continue. In turn, a more contractionary monetary policy by the BCRA could begin to compete with placements adjusted for inflation”.
On the other hand, in May sight deposits left the contractionary path that began in January, and increased by 2% in real terms per month. This growth was driven by savings accounts, +2.2% monthly real, as well as current accounts, +1.8% monthly real. Compared to a year ago they grew 4.6% real.
On this point, Gary Mendez warned “in the coming months there are several factors that oppose each other on the side of sight deposits. On the one hand, the greater issuance of pesos due to the reinforcement of income and the Christmas bonus causes demand deposits to increase. However, the uncertainty that exists today in the economy encourages these deposits to be dollarized or end up in fixed-term UVA”.
loans
2022 continues to be negative for loans in pesos. May was the fifth consecutive month with contraction (-0.5) and so far this year loans in pesos have accumulated a fall of 7.2% in real terms. However, from LCG they highlight that “in annual terms, they expanded by a real 2.3%, possibly explained by the low comparison bases of the same month of the year 2021”. Regarding future expectations, the report points out that “with a financial market that is not well known and economic growth that has not fully consolidated, it is expected that the rate hike will have a lesser impact on the demand for credit.”
Source: Ambito
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