The increase in the price of the oilseed is a truly positive effect for the economy in the short term, since the need for dollars for this year is imperative to cover the fiscal deficit and meet the goals that, by decision of his staff, is relaxing the IMF. Within the short-term positive effects, the BCRA will be able to accumulate reserves, if and only if, it keeps the monetary issue rate low with respect to the inflation rate. A mathematical equation that helps control the growth of the curve, of a possible inflationary spiral.
But increasing exports for the simple fact of an increase in prices and not by quantities is only bread for today and hunger for tomorrow. In a country that produces food for almost 6% of the world’s population. Paradoxical and inefficient from any point of view, the economic problems of our country that translate into social and cultural problems.
It is positive that exports increase quantitatively, but in the past this happened and when they did not increase qualitatively, we suffered more severe external “shocks” with greater pressure. The characterization is that the dollar manages to remain stable but momentarily and when it adjusts, always upwards, it causes negative effects of development and growth that last over time. It is simply to explain what happens from 1975 to date. Exports increase, the level of spending is maintained with those dollars and while the messes of previous periods are paid. We repeat the story from the famous “Stop and go”.
In conclusion, the increase in the price of soybeans gives air to an affected economy; due to its own structural problems (lack of export capacity and fiscal deficit) and to the power disputes that in parallel affect the real efforts that have been made during the current and last administration in terms of export capacity to take advantage of price increases of our exportable goods. How to reduce transportation costs with infrastructure works and cushion the impact on our economy of the volatility of international prices with stabilization funds, since applying withholdings only increases the fiscal pressure on the sectors that increase our sales abroad.
Now all that remains is to hope that the increase in the price of our exportable goods reflects a relief to the fiscal pressure and the erosion of people’s income. Until now we have seen an increase in income in dollars but with inflation at its maximum peak. It only remains to hope that the articulation of policy can generate short-term relief for our pockets. For this reason, an increase in soy only improves the conditions of the public sector in the short term, but not those of ordinary citizens who have seen their income sacrificed since 1975.
Source: Ambito
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