After the peak of 6.7% in March, inflation seems to have started a slow downward path. It is that the 6% of April, would be followed by a figure close to 5% in May. This is how different private consultants project it, whose estimates are around 5.2%. In addition, along the same lines, they warn that the strong increases in food prices in the first days of this month will add pressure to the June indicator.
As can be deduced from the Central Bank’s Survey of Market Expectations (REM), it is estimated that inflation in May was 5.2%. The estimates of the consultants Ecolatina and LCG were located at that level, while for EcoGo and C&T (for GBA), the IPC climbed 5.3%. Somewhat lower was the projection of Orlando Ferreres: in the order of 4.7%. This Tuesday the INDEC will spread the official data.
“This figure would be explained by some slowdown in the growth of Food and beverages after the initial shock of the war in Ukraine (5% monthly average), a category that would contribute 1.3 pp to the total CPI. In turn, there are specific increases of 11% in Fuels, 8% in Prepaid, 9.5% in Telephony, cable and internet, 15.5% in CNG, 9% for domestic employees, between 15% and 20 % increase in expenses and 8% increase for private schools in Buenos Aires”, argued the consulting firm EcoGo.
debt tender
The Ministry of Economy will put out to tender this afternoon five debt securities in pesos, one of them exclusive for the Common Investment Funds (FCI), in an offer that includes fixed-rate bonds and others adjusted for price variations.
The reception of offers will begin at 10 a.m. and will last until 3 p.m., reported the portfolio led by Martín Guzmán. The title that can only be subscribed by FCI is a Discounted Liquidity Bill maturing on July 15.
Four bills that make up the Market Makers Program will also be auctioned, two of them at a discount, one due on August 31, and another on November 30. To these offers will be added two bonds adjusted for CER (inflation), one due on October 21 and the other on December 16, all within the current year.
The market is reluctant to renew this short-term debt in national currency in the coming months, and the dollarization of the portfolios that was planned for July has already begun. Two facts to keep in mind: in April, the Treasury tried to lengthen the terms and reduce the percentage of CER bonds placed, to which the market responded by leaving the government without covering all maturities for the first time since August of last year. Another piece of information is that in the last auction in May, only 10% of investors bought titles in pesos that mature in 2023 and 35% were placed in CER-adjustable instruments while 1% in linked dollars. In this context, it will be a key day for the ministry led by Martín Guzmán.
Dollar
In a day of tension for the markets at the beginning of the week, the distrust of the debt in pesos took the country risk to 2,124 basic points, sustaining the rise of the last few days. That pressure was felt in the foreign exchange market where the dollar used by companies (better known as CCL “counted with liquid”) jumped 4.5% compared to the close of the previous day to $237.7. The MEP dollar also followed suit and gained 3.7% to trade at $229.8.
Parallel dollars woke up after weeks of stalling from mutual funds’ massive outflows between Wednesday and Friday of their positions in inflation-linked bonds. From the market they maintain that the turbulence in the foreign exchange market could still continue to the extent that some stability is not recovered.
Rate hike (US)
Global markets are also going through tense days. This Tuesday, a two-day session begins where the Federal Reserve will define the rate hike. The erosion of higher-than-expected US inflation data opened the door for an interest rate hike of three-quarters of a percentage point when Federal Reserve officials meet this week.
It is a move that the monetary authorities had downplayed as their two-day meeting approached in recent weeks, but which they may now be prepared to adopt in response to data that still show no progress in moderating the pace of interest rate increases. prices.
A decision won’t be made until the end of the meeting on Wednesday after what will likely be a full debate on the risks that faster rate hikes could push the economy into recession, and the risks they could pose to the economy itself. Fed’s credibility after leaning heavily on half-point hikes as adequate for now.
Source: Ambito
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