“To highlight this week were the falls in prices observed in three of the ten categories; which added 0.3 pp that were subtracted from the total variation (Vegetables -2.5%, Oils -1.1% and Baked Products -0.8%). These falls occur after a week in which the three categories had marked increases greater than 2.5%, “said the firm.
“The percentage of products that suffered increases decreased this week and stood at 16%. A noteworthy fact is that since the beginning of the year, the percentage of products with increases has been, with two exceptions, above 10% of the basket in each week and, on average, is located at 18% of the total, which marks the high level of inflationary inertia of the economy,” the report added.
Another consultancy that carries out this type of survey is EcoGo, whose study revealed a variation of 1.3% in the second week of Junewhich in this case implied an acceleration of 0.3 pp in the margin.
“With this data and considering a weekly variation projection of 1% for the next three weeks of the month, the inflation of food consumed at home in June would climb to 5.0% monthly”, pointed out the consultant.
Meanwhile, according to the analysis of Free Consumers, it stands out that theThe basic basket that relieves the entity presented a rise of 2.4% in the first half of the month, accumulating a rise of 31% in the year. Warehouse products rose 3.5% in the first fortnight, while meat rose 2.5%. Fruit and vegetables, meanwhile, increased just 0.1%
“Food, from what we see, would increase around 5% this month. We are going to see if the uncertainty in the financial plane affects, but I do not believe that it influences too much. The foods point to continue with the rhythm they have been showing. Some even moderated, but I think they will continue at this level”, analyzed Camilo Tiscornia, director of C&T Economic Advisors.
Impact on headline inflation
These increases in food, added to increases agreed for this month, would once again place inflation at around 5% in June. In this regard, EcoGo highlighted the projected increases “in categories such as housing, health and education, driven by increases in prepaid (10%), schools in PBA (8%), electricity and gas rates, among others.”
For their part, from Ecolatina they pointed out that, despite the slowdown that the CPI registered in May, “Inflation in the second quarter will maintain a high floor”. “From now on we expect the deceleration to be slower, reaching June and July in the 4.5-5% area. For example, during the current month the already agreed increases in certain regulated prices (such as public utility rates) will impact an inertia that is unlikely to subside in the short term as a result of the absence of any price agreement -for mass consumer goods – and the macroeconomic uncertainty of recent days, which could escalate in the short term”, they remarked from the firm.
Thus, private consultants estimate that inflation will close this year around 70%. Some projections, such as the LCG, place it even close to 80%.
Source: Ambito
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