The economic recovery demands dollars, but it is not the only factor. In the Government they recognize that the level of activity is not consistent with the flow of imports. “Under normal conditions, this growth should be sustained with no more than US$6.5 billion per month,” a senior official told this medium. Therefore, they understand that a speculative component is operating, companies that advance purchases to overstock and anticipate a possible devaluation. They point to coordination measures to apply “fine tuning”.
At the same time, point out that there is a change in seasonality. “Energy prices have risen a lot so the government is importing as early as possible and all of that was paid in advance.. In July there will be few payments and in August there will be none. The purchases of the sector were anticipated forward and generated a very large deficit for us”, explained the second vice-president of the Central Bank of the Argentine Republic, Jorge Carrera.
On the export side, the phenomenon is the other way around. Although prices have risen a lot, sales are slow. As this media reported yesterday, in June they already entered more than US $ 1,900 million. In dollar terms, the settlement is higher than in previous years, but not in tons of grain. “Many people have sat on top of their silo waiting for a devaluation,” they point out from the Government.
Data from the Ministry of Agriculture indicate that out of a total of 43.3 million tons, farmers have so far sold 17.9 million, so there are still about 25.4 million to be sold. So in the entity led by Miguel Ángel Pesce they expect dollar inflows to be spaced out throughout the year, with higher-than-usual foreign exchange inflows during the second half of 2022.
As explained in the Central Bank, the delay in the accumulation of reserves is also due to a delay in disbursements from multilateral organizations of credit. According to official sources, there are about US$1.2 billion that should have arrived but due to “bureaucratic” issues they will enter in the coming months.
However, in the Government they are betting that the outflow of foreign currency will slow down once the companies begin to exhaust the quota of imports that they have assigned by the Central Bank. Along these lines, they state that “the reserve accumulation goal is going to be met.” Meanwhile, the IMF prepares the magnifying glass for the second review and net holdings appear as the most compromised variable.
Source: Ambito
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