On the import side, the consultant states thatPurchases continued to show “high levels of around US$6.9 billiondriven by greater dynamics in fuels and capital and intermediate goods”. In this way, LCG calculates that the result “will be around US $ 1,200 million, implying a fall of 25% year on year”. In the first five months. exports totaled just over US$35.6 billion, while imports totaled some US$31.7 billion. With this, the trade balance surplus would be close to US$3.9 billion between January and May. The precise data will be known this Wednesday when the National Institute of Statistics and Censuses (INDEC) releases the trade balance data for May.
In this context, it is not ruled out that the Government decides deepen the trap on imports, something that, however, the Minister of Economy, Martín Guzmán, ruled out. The head of the Palacio de Hacienda came out to discourage rumors that greater restrictions could be applied to payments in dollars with credit cards. Strictly speaking, it is something unlikely to happen for tax reasons. The so-called PAIS Tax, which is charged to people who buy foreign currency for hoarding or who make consumption abroad, registers an increase in collection of 330% cWith a total of $24,000 million and in the adaptation of the budget that was carried out by Decree of Necessity and Urgency (DNU) last week, an extra income of $74,000 million is expected this year.
What can happen is that pressured by the need to meet the goal of accumulation of reserves in the remainder of the year, the now Minister of Productive Development, Daniel Scioli, decides to intensify controls on imports.
A report by the Sarandí consultancy, directed by the economist Sergio Chouza, develops the hypothesis that the current level of imports is incompatible with that of economic activity.and explains it based on an over-stocking of inputs that companies would be carrying out to cover themselves from a possible devaluation. “If imports are cut to levels compatible with the current level of activity, applications could be reduced by US$13.5 billion a year., equivalent to US$1.125 million per month”, states the consultant. The work indicates that “if payments for services (some overcharged) were reduced and the formation of external assets (FAE) of human persons were limited, the potential savings figure could climb up to US$16.3 billion, that is, US$ s1,360 million monthly”.
On the other hand, the Institute of Economic Research for the Argentine and Latin American Reality (IERAL) warns that the greater closure of imports could have an effect contrary to what was expected.. The explanation is technical. “At the accounting level, the positive current account of the balance of payments arises from exports of goods and services that exceed imports. But, in economic terms, that surplus depends on total household savings being above the investment rate. Even if creative accounting complies with the limits set for the fiscal deficit, if there is excess public spending, lower savings and exchange delays, the macroeconomic consequences cannot be avoided”, explains IERAL.
Source: Ambito
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