Melconian spoke of five stages of government of the current ruling party: “The first, the base of the inherited success, was that of Néstor Kirchner, with single-digit inflation and almost double-digit growth. In football terms, you hit him from anywhere and he went in. This doesn’t come back anymore. Alberto Fernández is ill-advised, he says that he wants to go back to that, but it is impossible. He is unrepeatable”.
“Then there is a transition stage, with the first two years of Cristina Fernández bad and two very good, 2010 and 2011, but with double-digit inflation. The third stage begins in October 2013, when they lose the elections and the variables begin to derail. In January 2014 came the ‘Fabregazo’. A fiscal adjustment is made, a devaluation jump to recover competitiveness, an agreement with exporters and the reserves are eaten. Inflation was 25%, not 60%. It is a more conflictive stage than the previous one, since it has worse variables”, continued the economist.
“The fourth stage is when this government begins, Mauricio Macri made a losing adjustment to the election between 2018 and 2019, but left zero in the treasury, zero in currency issuance, reserves to comfortably spend the first year and a dollar to 60, something very good for that moment. It would be a 150 peso dollar today. With those mattresses, the government was on its way to winning the midterm elections and the pandemic seized it,” Melconian said.
While, on the current and fifth stage, he set his start date in the electoral defeat of the Frente de Todos in the legislative elections of 2021: “At this stage they are again forced to make a classic adjustment, with all the internal problems that it has. this government. Alberto Fernández tries to add political muscles with Daniel Scioli, Agustín Rossi, Julián Domínguez, Juan Zabaleta, Aníbal Fernández, Juan Manzur. They begin to endow them with ‘political muscle’, they are guys who I don’t know if they understand much about what needs to be done, but they put their heart into it”.
In this framework, Melconian warned that “rates, plans, (transfers to) provinces and pensions are the four elements of the deficit” and stated that, if spending is not reduced, macroeconomic variables will continue to worsen: “The The issue is that you are overspending. Water keeps coming out of the faucet. If it doesn’t close, this is all to hell. We have already learned that if the public spending faucet is open, the external debt, the internal debt or the issue rises, which generates inflation. All the rest are palliative, you have to close the faucet because, if not, it keeps overflowing”.
While, finally, he harshly criticized the Minister of Economy, Martín Guzmán: ”This is not like the debt in dollars, which Guzmán kicked forward, nor the agreement with the Fund. The debt in pesos is more complex, because every time you renew, you continue to have it in your field. You hit him sharp and he comes back. It will be like this until they plug it into the next government, but it is not easy to get to the next government. A few months ago we had the discussion of whether the debt in dollars or pesos is better, which was the banner of Minister Guzmán. There you have the debt in pesos now. The fish dies by the mouth”.
Source: Ambito
David William is a talented author who has made a name for himself in the world of writing. He is a professional author who writes on a wide range of topics, from general interest to opinion news. David is currently working as a writer at 24 hours worlds where he brings his unique perspective and in-depth research to his articles, making them both informative and engaging.
