Traditionally in Argentina from the income of the soybean harvest, June is the month in which the most foreign currency is liquidated, but in this 2022 the scenario is different. It is that in the previous months the field contributed the record of more than US $ 15,000 million driven by high international prices and strong exports of wheat and corn.
What will continue from now on is that agriculture will be far from being a strong contributor of genuine dollars to the real economy.. According to the latest projections of the Rosario Stock Exchange, June would end with an income of around US$3,500 / US$3,600 million. While July would accumulate another US$3.9 billion, August US$3.6 billion, September US$3.5 billion and October US$3.4 billion. Only November and December would end with revenue each month just shy of $2.5bn.
These projections coincide with those prepared by the consulting firm Ecolatina, who recently announced: “with a view to the coming months, we estimate that the logistical problems due to the lack of diesel and the distortions generated by an exchange rate gap at high levels could have affected the seasonality in the marketing of some agricultural products. In this sense, we do not rule out that exports persist at these levels even after the heavy harvest is over. In turn, despite a possible strengthening of the dollar in the face of the FED’s more aggressive stance, we expect international commodity prices to remain at high levels in the medium term, favoring the performance of our agricultural exports.”
In general terms, 2022 would conclude with the accumulated record for foreign currency income from the field of just over US$41.5 billion, while all the contributing sectors would also add the historical record of US$87.1 billion.
In this context in which a large inflow of foreign currency is projected, the measures that the Government will announce in the next few hours will be key in terms of limiting access to dollars by certain importing sectors that today would be complicating the balance and projections of the Government to accumulate reservations in the coming months.
Something certain is that the field will be firm in the liquidation of foreign exchange and it will be the task of the Government to take advantage of this framework of record prices to strengthen the economy.
Source: Ambito
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