These remarks, said the economist, generate a dispersion of prices “So big, it’s very hard for consumers to know when they’re overpaying in any market.” “This dispersion of prices also makes it possible to know if someone is momentarily increasing their prices more than the competition and, then, enables there to be increases that are perhaps more heterogeneous and some speculative,” Kalos remarked, and underlined: “All this rise in alternative dollars, through the channel of expectations, puts upward pressure on inflation.”
For Camilo Tiscornia, director of C&T Economic Advisors, the current scenario “it definitely results in more inflation”. “Either because imports are restricted and there are things that do not enter, with which with a certain shortage there will be products that will increase; or because the products appear, but because the importers are paying with the dollar counted on liquidation, which is higher. So, if you go on to pay with CCL, it is as if the gap began to get into local inflation, “the economist told Ámbito, who asserted: “That is why, definitely, the measures adopted by the BCRA and this rise in alternative dollars will have an impact on inflation.. How much is difficult to know: it will have to do with how long this episode of volatility that we are seeing in exchange rates lasts and how far it goes.
Impact on “dollarized” goods and issuance
For his part, as explained by the economist Jorge Neyro, “the rise in the blue, in general, tends to drive the prices of goods considered refuge, such as construction materials or cars, which in the short term are slightly cheaper in dollars” . “Although the rise is still not very large, it usually gives a ‘push’ so that there are opportunity purchases from people who have dollars in hand,” he said.
“If the rise is larger in percentage, that can trigger another type of indexation, because the very high gap increases the expectations of devaluation. Which are already high, if you look at futures, but in the short term it has more impact on the demand for goods considered ‘dollarized’ or safe haven”, said Neyro.
Although he maintained that “The reality is that the rise in alternative dollars always generates pressure on prices,” For the director of the consulting firm Focus Market, Damián Di Pace, the root of the problem lies elsewhere: “One would have to worry more about the level of issuance of pesos that the Government is generating to finance the increase in public spending and the fiscal deficit, than by the movement of the dollar. Because, ultimately, this is a consequence of that.”
“In the first quarter of the year, the BCRA issued $200,000 million and, in the second quarter, we are at almost $600,000 million. So, what is losing value is the peso as a result of the monetary issue,” added Di Pace, who graphed: “And this rise in alternative dollars is a consequence of that.”
Finally, the analyst maintained that “the correction of the official exchange rate is being higher than in recent days, so that it is at least in line with inflation.” “But at some point, if the gap widens, exporters will not be willing to settle at such a low exchange rate and with such a high gap, which will force the BCRA to correct the official exchange rate. faster wholesaler This has already happened several times. And, in that case, that would accelerate the variation of wholesale prices in the first instance and then retail prices, obviously accelerating the inflation projections for this year”, he concluded.
Source: Ambito
David William is a talented author who has made a name for himself in the world of writing. He is a professional author who writes on a wide range of topics, from general interest to opinion news. David is currently working as a writer at 24 hours worlds where he brings his unique perspective and in-depth research to his articles, making them both informative and engaging.
