For his part, as explained by Santiago Manoukian, from Ecolatina, although they still do not have the closed data for June, from the consultant they project a 5.3%. “The month’s record was driven by the increases in public service rates (electricity, gas), the new adjustment in prepayments (10%), the impact of the increase in cigarettes and the rise in diesel,” the economist told Ámbito , who detailed: “As a result, inflation in the second quarter (17%) will close above that of the first, accumulating close to 36% in the year.”
Meanwhile, from EcoGo they projected that inflation would stand at 5.2%. And they also highlighted the increases in regulated goods and services. Regarding food, according to the survey carried out by the firm, a variation of 1.2% was registered in the fourth week of the month, which implied an acceleration of 0.7 pp “With this data and considering a projection of weekly variation of 1% for the remaining week of the monththe inflation of food consumed at home in June would climb to 4.7% monthly”, they highlighted.
In other words, as occurred in May, the item would once again be below the general level. According to C&T, “Food and beverages moderated again and rose 4.5%”. “The most representative rises occurred in oils and fats, in vegetables and in dairy products. Meat and baked goods lost some momentum after strong increases in previous months”, they assured from the consultant.
General inflation was also higher than the core, they detailed from C&T: “It was due to the fact that in June the increases in two key regulated components stood out: electricity and gas. This, together with the increase in the salaries of building managers, made housing the item with the highest increase in the month”.
what’s coming
When analyzing what can happen with july pricesManoukian maintained: “We expect inflation to continue to be driven by one-off adjustments in the water rate (+20%), prepaid (+4%), groups (+40% remains to be confirmed) and schools (+15%). On the other hand, an exchange rate accelerating and consolidating a rate above 4% per month, salary resistance and the lack of a robust anchor that helps to curb high inertia will continue to contribute to maintaining high figures”.
“Likewise, despite the fact that in the second part of the year we estimate a slowdown, the rise in prices in the year would have a floor of 72% year-on-year”assured the Ecolatina economist.
In fact, according to the latest Survey of Market Expectations (REM) carried out by the Central Bank, the analysts consulted projected that in July inflation will pierce the floor of 5% and would be located at 4.5%, and then “plateau” at 4% in August, September and October. Thus, they estimated in the report published at the beginning of June, inflation in 2022 would reach 72.6%.
Source: Ambito
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