As Ámbito learned, He also asked him to control some springs of the Central Bank, fundamentally at the entity’s money desk, which is in charge of intervening in the foreign exchange and capital markets. Basically, he wanted to be the one who had under his direct control the power to make immediate decisions to face the exchange and financial runs, such as those that have marked the last few weeks.
“At one point Alberto gave him the power of decision. At the end of 2020 when the blue dollar went to $195. And that run was reversed, ”they pointed out last night at the Palacio de Hacienda, where Guzmán was meeting with his closest secretaries and collaborators, who presented his resignation along with theirs. The La Plata economist, who had been endorsed once again by the president during the week in an interview on C5N, wanted that definition to be reissued. But the political scenario is not the same: now Both Kirchnerism and Massismo wanted him out of the Governmentand the internal dispute over the economic course had been openly debated for months on end, which was magnified after the agreement with the Fund.
The wing commanded by the vice president called for a more expansive policy so that the State plays a more decisive role in the distribution of income, even more so in a context marked by the unequal impact of the war throughout the world, and cataloged Guzmán’s plan as as adjustment. For the former minister, the growth in public spending in real terms during the first part of the year and the ruling out of a devaluation jump were proof that no adjustment was under way, as he wrote in his resignation letter.
In any case, escalating inflation and stagnant purchasing power of income at a level just above the floor left by the government of Mauricio Macri were key factors in the weakening of the position of the former official, who showed as medals the recovery of economic activity of 10.4% in 2021 and the restructuring of the debts left by the macrismo, which constituted one of the main conditioning factors of the current economic management together with the pandemic and the war. It is possible that the brake on the deceleration of inflation recorded in June by all private consultants (and recognized by some officials) has contributed to hastening Guzmán’s decision.
Market pressure and what’s to come
While his replacement in Economy is defined and the possibility of an eventual reformulation of the Cabinet is discussed, the big question is how the economic program will continue. For now, the pressures in the market, which have materialized in recent weeks in the run against parallel dollars and public securities, are a threat that appears at the beginning of the week. With inflation running well above 60% and a very delicate social situation, it is clear that what happens to the dollar will determine what is to come.
In recent days, Guzmán and the economic team had put in place a kind of damage containment plan to mitigate tensions in the market and shore up the international reserves in check. Pressures that combined among their factors the adverse international context, local macroeconomic problems and the versions encouraged by the opposition of a possible redefinition of the debt in pesos.
The containment plan combined restrictions on imports to take care of reserves with the intervention of the BCRA to support the yield curve of the debt in pesos and help its refinancing, and the adaptation of the 2022 Budget to meet the annual fiscal goal. Against the background of an IMF that in the first review of the program called for a considerable slowdown in public spending in the second half (after a more expansive first half of the year than expected as a result of the impact of the war in Ukraine). A kind of attempt to recreate the policy applied before the October 2020 bullfight, which the Government defined at the time as “prudence”. Now the panorama is open.
For the moment, the Presidency assures that the changes in the Cabinet will be defined with the criterion of sustaining the outlined economic program. But there are voices close to the Patria Institute that suggest that it is time to shuffle and give again. These are key times for the future of the government and it remains to be seen what signals will be sent in this regard.
Source: Ambito
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