This is the scenario that the new minister will face, so expectations are based on how this cabinet change will impact parallel dollars and the debt market, both in pesos and in foreign currency. John Manuel Franco, chief economist of SBS Group, He emphasized that “what is important is what the new minister declares in terms of measures or direction of economic policy in general.”
Julio Roque Calcagnino, financial advisor in TSA Securities, considered that it is difficult to anticipate an exchange rate response to Guzmán’s departure. “I do think we have other data in sight. The ITCRM calculated based on the CCL of last Thursday ($252.29) is just 8.8% below the convertibility exit level in 2002. Although this level was crossed on several occasions in the recent past (2020 and 2021 ), it is still a reference of what, personally, I consider an excessive exchange rate. In this sense, the starting point is not an appreciated exchange rate. There may be disruptive movements in the short term, but I see it difficult for them to be permanent as long as we do not go to an extreme scenario”, he stated.
For his part, the economist Santiago Manoukian, of Ecolatina, He warned that “the agreement with the IMF works as an anchor in this scenario of unstable nominality, and Guzmán was the guarantor of the agreement.” His departure, he considered, “is a negative signal for the markets, exacerbating the scenario of uncertainty that has contributed to the overheating of the exchange rate gap, a jump in devaluation expectations and an extremely delicate financial context.” Since the impact on the CCL cannot be seen until tomorrow (due to today’s holiday in the United States), the first sign we saw was the jump in the crypto dollar, which at this time ($DAI) is trading in the area of $280, he argued.
In relation to sovereign bonds, the financial analyst Christian Butler, He explained that the markets look forward, and Guzmán’s resignation is already part of the past. In this sense, he considered: “The impact is not going to be related to the resignation, but to the trust and expectations generated by his successor. Let’s remember that today is a holiday in the United States, so we will only see the repercussions on Tuesday.”
Among the main challenges, one of the key skills for Guzmán’s successor will have to be his ability to generate confidence among investors. On this point, calcagnino pointed out as a negative fact that many in the market considered Guzmán a kind of guarantee that a new redefinition of the debt in pesos would be avoided at all costs: “In a world where recent history tells us that in the defaults that occurred between 1997 and 2007, in 29% they involved only debts in foreign currency, in another 29% only debts in local currency and 41% both, the former minister sought from the discursive and from the financial policy to break this logic ”.
Source: Ambito
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