So far, the request of Alberto Fernández and the commitment of Silvina Batakis. But there are questions.
Will the economist be able to deviate from that path? Will she add other aspects that until now were left out of the agenda of Stiglitz’s godson? For now, it will be necessary to evaluate what Silvina Batakis will do with the paris club. Martín Guzmán had committed his trip for this week in order to negotiate the debt of some US$2.4 billion, a pending conversation that conditions, in turn, the possibility for companies to take credit on the international market. It will also be necessary to analyze what path the economic program takes if, as is assumed, the Government wants to establish continuity in compliance with the IMF.
In any case, underneath, a central question appears. It is a kind of misleading dilemma. On the one hand, what was agreed with the IMF is showing serious problems in order to be honored. The fiscal accounts do not finish accommodating what was promised. Nor the inflation guideline, the accumulated reserves and much less, the monetary issue records and depth of the debt market in pesos.
That is why Martín Guzmán left, in part. Because in order to stay within the margin of the commitment, the Government must swerve that ends up decanting other collateral effects. An example: in order to comply with the agreed pattern of accumulation of reserves, the Government applied additional restrictions on imports. This took the financial dollar above $250 and there was another jump yesterday. It would be difficult not to think that probably all this concatenation will not generate greater inflationary pressure and, therefore, greater pressure on the Central Bank. In other words, compliance with the commitment to the IMF generates other unwanted effects. In other words, if the government wants to continue on the path of the IMF, it will have to renegotiate the commitments assumed by Guzmán in the quarterly reviews.
Now, the other side of the question. Assuming that the Government wants to significantly mitigate the social impact of the agreement with the IMF, that is, the strict application of the economic program. Issues such as tariff segmentation, parity negotiations, supervision of price programs, public spending linked to assignments, retirement, pensions and much more are inscribed here.
How will Silvina Batakis be able to attack these issues if, at the same time, she has to renegotiate with the IMF under adverse conditions? Will she have the backing of the president and the entire coalition? Although it is something extremely complex, there is no doubt that Batakis will put the social issue on her agenda. If so, deep down, she will have to resolve other debates, no less important. What type of economic matrix will be consolidated in Argentina? Will it be from now on an economy marked by the commercialization of raw materials? Will Argentina depend on its external front to be able to move forward? How will you do to include millions of Argentines who do not participate in the export business of hydrocarbons, or mining, or agribusiness? How can you ensure a certain evolution of the essential consumption machinery to better distribute?
Source: Ambito
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