Pedro Siaba Serrate, head of strategy at Portfolio Personal Inversiones, analyzed it this way: “Guzmán showed a bit of caution and prudence when trying to follow the agreement with the IMF, despite having been a light plan in terms of fiscal coherence. His departure breaks that scheme and the market is concerned about what the new program is going to be like, and if this change implies a radicalization and moving away from the goals agreed with the IMF or if they are going to maintain the course they were taking ”. In the afternoon, Batakis said that he will keep the current program.
In that sense, the analyst warned that there may still be increases. “The lack of general credibility, added to the interventions in the secondary market of the BCRA, which led to a strong injection of pesos, and that now all those pesos are going to be sterilized in the Leliq. Last week there were apportionments of 90% in the Leliq auctions, which makes the banks begin to exchange the BCRA debt for the Treasury debt and continue financing the roll over. In this way, there is a feeling that many pesos are left over, which will have an impact on nominality going forward, both in inflation and in the gap. Following the liquidity of the economy, the private M3 and the evolution of the CCL, there may still be further corrections”, he raised.
The financial adviser, Rubén Ullua, agreed with the analysis: “There may still be further progress, and from a technical point of view there is a possibility that the market will seek the range of $300, which would coincide with the gap between 110% and 120%. %, similar to the maximum gap levels we reached at the beginning of the year. It will be key for the market to know the message of the new minister, and from there the portfolios will be reordered, but we will probably keep these dollar values high”.
For his part, Andrés Reschini, analyst at F2 Financial Solutions, considered that “we are in a scenario of extreme mistrust.” “The market needs strong political leadership and rational economic direction to build trust. If they see clear signs, it could loosen the pressure on alternative exchange rates. Otherwise, the uptrend will continue. What will happen to the fiscal deficit, inflationary pressure, the gap and the accumulation of reserves, I think are the main factors that the market is following more closely. The signals that are given these days in this sense are going to move the needle of the exchange rates in the short term, assuming that nothing changes in the international scene”, he concluded.
Source: Ambito
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