This contact became known through the interview that the head of the IMF gave to Reuters where he warned that “noWe need to be clear that painful actions are sometimes necessary in order to reap the benefits of these actions.” surely in response to the first statements of the Minister of Economy.
Subsequently, both officials talked and, according to reports from both the IMF and the government “Both agreed to continue working together to promote macroeconomic stability on the path of growth.” Then it was highlighted that the “positive” dialogue.
Management
From Monday first thing in the morning, the minister Silvina Batakis He took care to internalize the aspects related to his portfolio while analyzing his team.
“I arrive with his people” They commented in the corridors while it was observed that the intention is to displace the officials who have been summoned by the former Minister of Economy, or as in the case of Raul Rigo, former Secretary of the Treasury, who was appointed by the President Alberto Fernandez.
Martin De BellaRigo’s replacement, is an economist who served alongside Batakis in the Peronists Without Borders Association.
What caught the attention of the stable staff of Economy that the attitude was to take command as “as if it were another government and not part of the same management”, for this reason they quickly got rid of the previous officials. In reality, an orderly transition – that is, working with the outgoing official – demands more than 10 days depending on the area.
Unlike Guzmán and his team, who prided themselves on having a “technical view” regarding the economy, sometimes underestimating political issues, Batakis and his team has a more militant imprint.
Under that gaze, it is understood that, although his first statement was “I believe in fiscal balance” doors inside the offices of the Palacio de Hacienda it is believed that there will be a more lax attitude towards public spending.
It should be remembered that Vice President Cristina Fernández de Kirchner in more than one speech asserted that he does not believe “that the fiscal deficit is the cause of Argentina’s disproportionate and unique structural inflation in the world”
Goals
The evaluation of the former president and of the Patria Institute is that the IMF lent Argentina irresponsibly during the management of Maurice Macro and that you should share the responsibilities. Thus, everything indicates that the new minister will try to reformulate the goals of the current agreement.
For now, it should be noted that Guzmán met the objectives for the second quarter, but postponed payments.
Specialists on the subject believe that all the imbalance committed for the third quarter would be exhausted this month, from which there will surely be short circuits with the Fund’s staff on August 20, when Argentina must present the July numbers, if they are not modified. the annual goals.
Faced with this turn in politics, tensions in the foreign exchange market are accentuated. It should be noted that during the second quarter the external surplus of almost 15,000 million dollars was practically not reflected in the reserves of the Central Bank.
The companies that can, due to the lack of dollars and the certainty that the stocks will be accentuated, are tending to mark prices taking financial dollars (it is not official) as a reference. In other words, an acceleration of inflation can be expected.
The picture is further complicated by the international situation. The strengthening of the dollar and the fear of a global recession are collapsing the prices of raw materials – wheat went from 450 dollars per ton to less than 300-
directives
The surveys reveal the profound deterioration of the government’s management. Almost all polls show that the majority of people are pessimistic about the future of the country, particularly in economic matters.
In this framework, initiatives such as the a pension moratorium that already has half a sanction in Congress -it would benefit 800,000 people with difficulties in retiring- or universal income – 7 million beneficiaries –
The problem is the difficulty of the Treasury to finance these measures. It is estimated, for example, that a universal allocation could have a cost four times what the funds allocated to the Empower Work plan.
the vice president Cristina Kirchner I already stated that “the relationship between the fiscal deficit and inflation is not direct.” Also that there are sectors that have had extraordinary profits, from which the windfall income tax, withholdings on exports or other forms of increasing tax pressure return to the discussion table.
Source: Ambito
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