To this scenario of less planted area -400,000 hectares have been cut since the beginning of the campaign- would also add a production cut because the weather forecasts are not very encouraging for the next few weeks, when the crop will need more moisture in some critical areas. Meanwhile, another key issue is the drop in international prices for agricultural commodities.
According to the economic report of the Buenos Aires Cereals Exchange, during last June the available prices of soybeans, corn and wheat in MATba-Rofex stood at US$395 per ton, US$229 and US$324, 9%, 14% and 12% below the previous month’s record. Similarly, export prices (FOB) of soybeans, corn and wheat followed the downward trend, falling by 6%, 11% and 6%. Meanwhile, compared to June of last year, prices are at high levels, standing at 16%, 12% and 67% higher, respectively.
So far, projections indicate that this year the wheat export complex would contribute around US$4.4 billion to the economy, but it all depends on how international prices and the agricultural season continue.. In this context, exporters rushed to declare sworn sales abroad until completing the balance volume established by the Ministry of Agriculture to take care of the supply of the domestic market. That is why the anticipated sales of the cereal set a historical record despite the fact that 85% of the estimated area has been sown so far.
internal marketing
While the sowing of wheat progresses and the weather continues to complicate the production plans, the data that is closely followed and worries the economic team is the decline in the sale of soybeans, which is having a full impact on the liquidation of foreign exchange.
During the last week of June, 410,000 tons were sold, which marks a drop of around 160,000 tons compared to the previous week. There are still 23.8 million tons to be sold and another 8 million tons that were delivered to exporters but with a price to be fixed. According to sources in the sector, as a result of the drop in prices and problems with the supply of diesel to transport the grains to the ports, it is expected that July will end with an income of less than US$3.5 billion.
Source: Ambito
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