The traditional factory of rumors and speculation, now updated via social networks, forced two officials in less than 24 hours to deny their resignations at the Casa Rosada. Undoubtedly something that does not favor the presidential image at all, given the historical experience. The economy and the goods, services and financial markets are immersed in this mess.
What everyone expects is more inflation with its consequences plus the clamping effect on the production chain.
It all started on June 8 and even today the splinters of the public debt in pesos continue to replicate. A top manager was consulting a respected economist and former 1990s official on why the bonds in dollars that were already at prices continued to fall: simply because nobody buys. Outsiders say it’s cheap, but their Creole colleagues warn them that it can still get cheaper.
What no one can explain is why Argentine bonds yield more than Ukraine, a country at war, or Sri Lanka, a country in default. Everything is a product of politics. The economy was already damaged but it was not a terminal case. Those who know the numbers of the debt in pesos, for example, show that their simulations show that neither a recasting nor restructuring is necessary. They are clear, what some do not seem, is that there was a transfer of Treasury debt to BCRA debt. In other words, those who left the Treasury bonds, ended up in Leliq, that is, they continue to be at risk in the public sector.
The economic and financial dynamics do show that the shortening of the rollover becomes challenging as of September when more than $1.2 trillion mature, but in the previous months Mrs. Batakis will see that the maturity steps are rising because each time the market wants go short
What is also talked about in meetings with men from the market? Four issues: the strong intervention of the BCRA in the futures market that would have come very close to the limit agreed with the IMF; also the drop in prices commodities in the futures market that indicate, as the song says, that nothing is forever, but also that investment funds are already anticipating adjustments in cereals and oilseeds; that in September things will change with the Fund; and how much room is there for a “Fabregazo”, the fashion theme.
Regarding the latter, beyond the different calculations, there is a certain consensus in the market and especially among analysts that the official dollar is not that far behind, it is 15% of what it should be, according to an agreed average reference level. . What is out of control are the informal dollars that, like public debt yields, are at terminal crisis levels. Today the blue dollar is 50% above the post convertibility dollar. In other words, a terminal crisis and that doesn’t seem to be today, beyond all the mess there is, let it be the stage. But you can’t pull too much on the rope either. It is not possible to continue much longer with these inflationary figures. Consultants say that their clients no longer ask about salary or parity. Sign. The placement of the ON (linked dollar) of Airports Argentina 2000 which had an impressive demand of more than US$2,224 million when the issue was for US$20 million. There is idle money.
Source: Ambito
David William is a talented author who has made a name for himself in the world of writing. He is a professional author who writes on a wide range of topics, from general interest to opinion news. David is currently working as a writer at 24 hours worlds where he brings his unique perspective and in-depth research to his articles, making them both informative and engaging.
