In reference to the departure of the former Minister of Economy, Martín Guzmán, the President affirmed that “he knows what I think about how he did it; there are questions of institutional responsibility that recommended that it should have happened in another way; now the minister’s name is Batakis and We need to talk about her.”
In statements to the C5N news channel, he considered that “if I want to finish the fiscal deficit in 24 hours, I am going to generate chaos.” “Being able to gradually lower the fiscal deficit, that is what we are looking for; and it is going to take time, just as it is going to take time to lower the inflation”, he pointed.
In this regard, he remarked that “the problem of inflation was unleashed throughout the world; we suffer from it more because 20 years ago we have had a two-digit inflationary cycle.” Therefore, he explained, “Argentina has a kind of structural inflation and part of a higher floor.”
“If we add to this the fact that the indebtedness that Macri contracted at the time complicates Argentine development conditions much more because it prevents us from accumulating reserves and that also affects prices, the scenario is very complex,” he said.
The inflation that the market expects for 2022
Former Minister of Economy Martín Guzmán had not been able to calm inflationary expectations as predicted in his environment, since a week before his departure from the Palace of Finance, economic studies approached the Central Bank with a gloomy projection on the evolution of prices for 2022 and private sector evaluations estimated that at the end of December the accumulated price rise would be 76%, 3.4 points higher than expected a month earlier.
This is the average result of the total of 38 participants in the Market Expectation Survey (REM) prepared by the Central Bank, among whom are 26 consultants and local and international research centers and 12 financial entities.
But the panorama becomes much darker when the TOP-10 of consulting firms in terms of accurate projections is extracted: for this select group, the expected average inflation is 79.2%.
According to the BCRA, the evaluations were carried out between June 27 and 30, three days before Guzmán’s resignation.
The outgoing economic team announced that after the peak of 6.7% that occurred in March, the inflation rate would go down month by month.
What happened in April (6.1%) and May (5.1%) seemed to prove him right, but for analysts the trend was going in the opposite direction.
The correction that occurred for 2022 had an impact on the previous measurements for 2023, which rose to 64.5%, 4.6 points above the previous calculation.
The voice of the market despises the agreement with the International Monetary Fund (IMF).
The revised guideline estimated that 2022 inflation had to be in a range of 52 to 62% and estimates already place it 14 points above that band.
For the month of June, REM participants calculated an inflation of 5.2%. This afternoon the variation of prices in the City of Buenos Aires was known and it was in that line: 5.1%.
The official national inflation of the INDEC will be announced next Thursday, June 14.
For the coming months the projections are: July 4.8%, August 4.5%, September 4.5%, October 4.2%, November 4.2% and December 4.2%.
In another order, the participants of the REM expect a growth of the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for 2022 of 3.2%, just 0.1% below the previous measurement. The “top ten” estimates it at 2.9%, down 0.6 points.
Regarding the projections of the official exchange rate, analysts expect it to reach $159.60 per dollar.
Source: Ambito
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