Adcap indicates that a “coordination between public agents would favor the normalization of yield curves”. The report mentions the committee for the management of the debt in pesos that Silvina Batakis announced in her first press conference as Minister of Economy. Such a group would be made up of the Ministry of Economy, the BCRA, the Sustainability Guarantee Fund (FGS) and private consultants, to coordinate issues related to debt in pesos, such as purchases in the secondary market and participation in tenders.
“We believe that this data is auspicious for the CER curve. We expect the normalization of the CER curve and inflation expectations contribute to the demand for CER assets”, anticipates Adcap. What has happened in the last month and a half is that distrust has grown among investors about debt in pesos adjusted for inflation, which until then was the preferred instrument to preserve capital. The Treasury was forced to raise interest rates and shorten terms in order to roll maturities and comply with the fiscal deficit financing program. Until now, Economy had been achieving it, but at the cost of accumulating maturities that were closer and closer in time. The fund manager also anticipates that a rise in interest rates cannot be ruled out after the confirmation of the inflation figure. In accordance with the guidelines of converging to positive real rates, the BCRA raised rates to 52%, from 38% at the beginning of the year.
in front of itthe president of the Central Bank, Miguel Pesce, had to go out once again to ratify the organization’s will to defend the value of the titles through purchases, something it had been doing until now, but at the cost of having to issue. The official said that the entity he presides over “It is going to reinforce the signals to the markets with some measures that will be taken this week.”
As Ámbito advanced, the entity proposes an insurance scheme for banks that buy Treasury securities. In case they want to get out of the “risk” of the government, the BCRA is going to buy the instruments. With this, it tries to guarantee payment so that investors in government debt are encouraged to stretch terms. Currently, andThe limit with which the market works is June 2023because he fears that in the event of a change of administration there will be a redefinition of maturities, as the then Minister of Finance, Sebastián Lacunza, did at the end of the government of Mauricio Macri.
The new Secretary of Finance, Eduardo Setti, now has the mission of avoiding the “wall effect”. The accumulation of shorter maturities suggests that monthly rolling needs, which they are located in the $500,000 million average range to $1 trillion in a few months. Setti will lead a placement of four titles with which he will seek at least $30,000 million: a Lelite to August, a Ledes to October, a dollar-linked bond to July 2023 and a fixed-rate bond to 2027 that banks use to remunerate reserves. There will be a rate hike. In addition, it presented an exchange of Ledes and Lecer that expire at the end of July for Ledes in February and April 2023, which in the market are destined for the BCRA. With this, the new economic team will seek to see if it can extend the terms and at the same time give certainty to the financial program agreed with the International Monetary Fund (IMF).
With this week’s assembly, the aim is to reach the 29th of this month, when the real test for Batakis is presented: that day some $500,000 million are due.
Source: Ambito
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