How serious will it be if Russia actually stops supplying natural gas to Germany? An energy expert doesn’t see things as blackly as the president of an important industry association.
From the point of view of energy economist Claudia Kemfert, a gas shortage does not necessarily have to occur even if Russia were to stop all gas deliveries to Germany.
“Whether there really is a gas shortage depends on various aspects,” said the energy expert from the German Institute for Economic Research (DIW) of the German Press Agency. These included, above all, the development of gas supply relationships with countries other than Russia, the constant filling of storage facilities and the saving of gas.
In addition, there are other options. “But if at least the first three components are done well, I don’t see that we actually have to have a gas shortage,” said Kemfert. Germany has started these measures or is already on the right track.
Alternative sources in Europe
So far, Germany’s alternative sources of conventional natural gas have primarily included the Netherlands and Norway. Economics Minister Robert Habeck (Greens) tried to find new supply relationships for liquid gas on a trip to Qatar in the spring. It is still unclear whether, when and how much more gas will actually come from the emirate. The filling level of the German gas storage facilities is increasing slowly but steadily. It is currently around 65 percent.
The Federal Government and the Federal Network Agency have repeatedly called on consumers and industry to save energy. The President of the Association of German Chambers of Industry and Commerce, Peter Adrian, asked private consumers and less energy-intensive companies to start saving energy consistently out of solidarity with industry. “There are real supply bottlenecks and our entire economy is threatened with a crisis of unknown proportions. The consequences of shutting down individual sectors or companies cannot be overlooked,” Adrian told the Rheinische Post.
Esken for «protective shield»
In the same newspaper, SPD leader Saskia Esken spoke out in favor of a “protective shield” for consumers who could no longer afford the high energy prices. This should guarantee “that the apartment stays warm and energy affordable”. Esken did not say how this protective shield should be implemented.
In view of the cost increases, the left-wing member of the Bundestag Sören Pellmann called for VAT on gas and electricity to be suspended at least until the end of 2023. In addition, the prices “should be capped like in other EU countries,” he told the “Neue Osnabrücker Zeitung”. 19 percent VAT is due on electricity and gas. If energy prices rise, correspondingly more tax has to be paid.
Bafin boss: Banks could have problems
The head of the Federal Financial Supervisory Authority (Bafin), Mark Branson, also sees possible consequences for banks and savings banks in the event of a gas shortage. The industry did well because of the Corona crisis because the state had spread its rescue package widely, Branson told the Süddeutsche Zeitung.
In an energy crisis, almost the entire economy is affected, and the state cannot absorb everything. «What happens if a deep recession comes, perhaps combined with an interest rate shock? Then you can not rule out that banks will have problems, especially since some
Institutes have many real estate risks or interest rate risks
have on the balance sheet,” said the Bafin boss.
Source: Stern
Jane Stock is a technology author, who has written for 24 Hours World. She writes about the latest in technology news and trends, and is always on the lookout for new and innovative ways to improve his audience’s experience.
