“The lack of water got in the way of the possibilities of the 2022/23 cycle. With the work almost stopped, the new wheat goal is to cover 5.9 million hectares. And it won’t be easy. Almost 1.2 million hectares with wheat remain to be planted, so the area may continue to fall. Four years ago wheat planting did not fall below 6 million hectares: we have to go back to the 2017/18 cycle to find a lower number (5.4 million hectares)”, they detail from the Rosario Stock Exchange.
The data to take into account then is that the sowing can still continue to fall. And Buenos Aires, the quintessential wheat province, is going through the worst drought in 15 years.
“Wheat fell 470,000 ha in Córdoba compared to last year, the fall would be almost 35%. Santa Fe follows with a 17% drop, some 230,000 fewer compared to 2021. In northern Argentina the drop would be 19% and 130,000 hectares would remain. La Pampa would plant 14% less and only Entre Ríos could add 30,000 hectares. In Buenos Aires, the area in the north of the province was adjusted due to the lack of planting possibilities and in the southeast due to the switch from wheat to barley, waiting for what may happen from now on with the rains. With this new adjustment, the productive horizon (using the average yield of the last 5 years of 31 quintals) that was located at 18.5 million tons in June passes 17.7 million tons”, detailed from the Rosario entity.
In this context, the price of wheat accumulates four consecutive falls this week and closed yesterday at US$292.1 for the September contract. Although volatility in the markets is the order of the day, from the Granar broker they detail: “The downward influence of the harvest in the northern hemisphere and the entry of new grain into the commercial circuit is sustained, as is the pressure of the favorable prospects for Russian exports, a country that predicts a record production and that has almost halved the tariff on foreign sales of fine grain”.
Source: Ambito
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