the deceleration was cut in June and they foresee a new jump in July

The item that registered the greatest increase in June was health, with 7.4%, followed by expenses on housing, water, gas and electricity with 6.8%.

One step below were alcoholic beverages and tobacco with 6.7%; restaurants and hotels, 6.2%; home equipment, 6%; clothing, 5.8% and miscellaneous goods and services, 5%. Transportation followed with 4.7% and food and non-alcoholic beverages, with 4.6%; recreation and culture, 4.3%, education and communication 0.4%.

Last month there was a certain impact of the international increase in the price of food, on the one hand, and more pesos were poured into the market through the second installment of the $18,000 bonus for the unemployed, monotributistas A and B, workers in private homes and others, and several salary updates through advance of parity. In addition to this, there was an increase in some regulated items. In the opposite direction played a strong slowdown in the price of meat. In June, the most popular cuts rose 1.4%, estimated the Center for Argentine Political Economy (CEPA).

With this scenario, he closed the last month of inflation while Martín Guzmán was in charge of the Ministry of Economy. But the political noise generated by his resignation opened up a new dynamic of very strong prices in the first two months of July. Private analysts, such as Camilo Tiscornia, from the C&T consultancy, already project no less than 7% for July.

“June is already ancient history, in the first week of this month there was a strong increase in prices”, Tircornia pointed out to Scope. The economist, specialized in mass consumption markets, explained that after Guzmán’s resignation and the Central Bank announced a reinforcement of the turnstile on imports, food prices rose again. As explained by the consultant, the escape from the dollar generated a sharp rise in prices in electronics, dairy products and baked goods in the first days of the current month. The annual rate of prices in July would be 66%, which indicates an acceleration in the cost of living.

Hernán Letcher, from CEPA, explained that “it will be very difficult” for inflation to slow down in the remainder of the month. The economist blamed the increase “on the price-setting sectors” whom he accuses of taking advantage of Guzmán’s untimely exit to “highlight in a significant and arbitrary manner” with the idea of ​​covering himself for “a supposed impossibility of access to dollars for imports.” “Since July 4, large companies have sent out updated price lists and reduced or limited deliveries, threatening to stock out,” Letcher said. who believes that the government’s alternative is to force companies to roll back these increases.

One point to keep in mind in relation to June is that the trend towards a drop in consumption in supermarkets has been deepening. According to a report by Scanntech, which conducts a monthly survey of 1,400 points of sale in the country and processes 3.7 million tickets, last month purchases fell 4.5% in real terms, although the price of the products grew 59.6%. The trend started in February with a drop in consumption of 3%; March, 7.9%; April, 8.7%; and May 6.7%.

“The variations of the first semester of 2022 with respect to the same period of the previous year register a retraction of 2.4% in consumption and growth of 56.6% in billing”, accumulated so far this year, according to the consultant. The data indicates that people are going to sales channels more often, but buying less. “The self-service shopping trip during June 2022 (average ticket) was $987 including 5.4 units. The frequency of visits to the channel grows around 5% during the first half of 2022, but with a lower average Transaction in number of Units (-10%)”, Scanntech pointed out.