After Kozack’s departure, a hardening of the IMF’s position is feared

Although, from the Fund they clarify that “will continue to work on the Argentina program until September to ensure an orderly transition and continuity in the work it performs”those who know the dynamics of the organism pointed out that it will surely limit itself to preparing the transition.

Furthermore, it is speculated that Kozack, already in retreat, will be less “flexible” with deviations from goals that Argentina will show, according to private analysts.

In Washington it is often said that being assigned to deal with the Argentine case is a “punishment” since most of the previous staff members who were in charge of the country today do not even work at the IMF anymore.

In this sense, it should be noted from the famous Anne Krugerlinked to the agreement concluded during the government of Fernando de la Rua, to the former director of the organization Christine Lagarde and former Northern Hemisphere DirectorAlexander Werner, who were in charge of the mega credit granted to the management of Mauricio Macri.

Both Lagarde and Werner guaranteed a loan well above the country’s quota and that, it is obvious, it did not achieve any of the purposes stated in the agreement stand by. Both officials today no longer belong to the multilateral organization.

Precisely Werner questioned the new agreement reached by the IMF with the previous Minister of Economy, Martin Guzman. A few days ago, in an interview, he said that “for three years we have not seen a program that reflects how the Government is going to seek to restore the macroeconomic order and how it is going to lay the foundations, the microeconomic part, to generate incentives for investment and the job”.

And, in what can be considered a criticism of Guzmán, “it seemed that the government was betting that the problems would come from restructuring the debt and they realized that the debt was more a symptom than the fundamental cause of the problem.”

defender

According to international analysis, Kozack’s departure would be due to the fact that it was a “defender” of the program agreed with Argentina. They consider that this economist has a less orthodox view of the recommendations to the countries than other members of the Fund.

In this regard, in the first review of the current program, the IMF technicians led by Kozack allowed flexibility in quarterly goals of the current agreement, although without modifying the annual objectives.

By maintaining the limit of 2.5% of the primary fiscal deficit, the minister Silvina Batakis It will have to carry out a severe review of the public accounts, since complying with the Fund will require going from an expansion of outlays of almost 13% in real terms in the first semester to a contraction close to 8% in the second.

It is precisely this difficulty that the markets perceive, to which is added the goal of accumulation of reserves by the Central Bank, which is becoming increasingly difficult to meet.

The IMF anticipated that the position of julie kozack will be covered “relatively soon”. This Thursday, the spokesman Gerry Rice In his traditional press conference, he stated that “The objectives (of the agreement signed with the IMF) are maintained”, and stressed that the announcements made by Minister Batakis are “consistent” with the current program.

It should be noted that the Argentine representative before the Fund, Sergio Chodos-recently ratified by Batakis-, he had a good relationship with Kozack.

At the IMF it is usual that, when they begin to see difficulties in achieving certain results in certain countries, they replace the officials in charge at the time of hardening their gaze.

When last January he appointed as Director of the Western Hemisphere to Ilan Goldfajn, international analysts affirmed that his analysis of the Argentine situation would be more critical. At the time, Goldfajn stated that the current program with Argentina “it is a political agreement that allows to reach the elections. But the administration that comes will have a very difficult task. And a new deal will be much more demanding.”