In this framework, Juan Manuel Garzón, from the Mediterranean Foundation, explained: “As can be inferred, any delay in grain marketing slows down export operations, the main destination for these raw materials, and delays the entry of foreign currency into the foreign exchange market; In a context of great volatility and distrust towards economic policy, this generates additional pressure on the foreign exchange market and the price of the foreign currency”.
“Now, it should be noted that the problem is not the dollars from the field that may take time to enter, in fact, the sector can and should freely dispose of its production, deciding when is the best time to get rid of the grains, as happens in the main producing countries of the world. What must be asked is why the dollars are not enough in a scenario of excellent international prices of raw materials and a relatively good harvest, what is happening with the demand for dollars that has been showing so active and intense in the different foreign exchange markets (official, free), what is making economic actors part with their pesos to exchange them for foreign currency, either directly (buying bills) or indirectly (holding or buying dollarized assets , importing goods)”, he added.
Meanwhile, the economist is categorical in detailing that the answers to these questions are not to be found in the dollar market or in the decisions of private agents “but rather in the peso market and in economic policy decisions, in the great imbalance that has been generated in the peso market due to excessive issuance to finance excess public spending, both in the present (fiscal deficit) and in the past (treasury debt)”.
For now, the incentive measures sought by the Government for producers to sell the soybeans stored in their silos have not had the expected effect. The “chacarero fixed term”, which is intended for agricultural producers and its performance related to the value of grains and the price of the dollar, did not move the needle in a context in which the gap between the official dollar and the parallel ones is at its all-time high.
In this regard, the employer Antonio AracreCEO of Syngenta, attentive to the news, expressed his opinion on Twitter: “The success of the economic plan for the next twelve months consists of finding tax incentives for producers to sell their grains without having to devalue and for inflation to slow down and salary purchasing power to recover. Easy to say, complex to implement”.
That’s the way it is, For now, the settlement of the field continues to flow relatively normally. Until last Thursday, the agro-export companies had entered the local exchange market for just over US$1.5 billion and Compared to the same period of the previous month, the income of dollars fell by only about US$200 million, since in the first 9 business days of June they entered around US $ 1,700 million.
The situation could be more complex in the coming weeks and it will be at that time, or actually before, when the Government will have to be “creative” to encourage producers to sell their soybeans, according to some economists and connoisseurs of the sector. It is that, for example, in October 2020 the former Minister of Economy, Martín Guzmán, established a temporary reduction in the withholdings on soybeans to encourage the entry of dollars, a measure that did not achieve the desired effect.
On this occasion, the scenario is even more complex because the Argentine economy not only cannot give up a single point of tax collection, but other factors also come into play, such as the drop in international grain prices, which are quite far from the peak generated by the war between Russia and Ukraine that can also contract the income of dollars from the field.
Source: Ambito
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