“The category of Food and beverages marked an increase of 8.1% (above the average), for which, although we expect a somewhat calmer dynamic in the second part of the month, the rise in the item will hardly pierce 7% in the month”, Santiago Manoukian, an economist at the consulting firm, explained to Ámbito . “We expect a general level of inflation of 7.5% for July. Food would be in that range, obviously this will depend on whether expectations are calmed in the remainder of the month and if there is no other disruptive event, which in principle we are not expecting. But it is subject to that,” he added.
For its part, the survey of food prices carried out by the consulting firm LCG, marked an increase of 1.5% in the second week of July, decelerating 1 pp with respect to the value observed in the previous week. “Nevertheless, in two weeks food accumulates a rise of 4%, which in monthly terms is equivalent to 8.2%”, they pointed out from the firm.
“In turn, it is noteworthy that for the second consecutive week the percentage of products with increases remained above 30%. This reflects a marked inertial acceleration with a shortening of the redial times. If maintained at these levels, it is equivalent to assuming that all the prices surveyed are corrected upwards every three weeks”, they added.
Meanwhile, from Eco Go they registered a variation of 1.4% in the second week of the month compared to the previous week, which implied a slowdown of 0.6 pp in the margin. “With this data and considering a weekly variation projection of 1.2% for the next three weeks of the month, the inflation of food consumed at home in July would climb to 5.9% monthly”, they highlighted from the signature.
looks
Camilo Tiscornia, director of T&C Economic Advisors, pointed out that the evolution of food prices “has a disparate behavior”. “Increases are seen in beverages, baked goods, fruits and dairy products; but not, for example, in meat. That’s why, for now, the food item comes below general inflationTiscornia pointed out.
For his part, when analyzing the factors that drive food prices even higher, Damián Di Pace, director of the consulting firm Focus Market, remarked: “In July, the acceleration of macroeconomic distortions as greater monetary issue, unsuccessful placement of debt in local currency in the previous one, restriction on imports and greater exchange rate gap shows increases of up to 20% in food from the basic basket. For its part, the adjustment section of rates which have impact on the industrial and commercial food sector that will also lead to increases in final destination in gondola. At the same time, the conflicts still over transportation and distribution due to the diesel problem at the pumps in service stations also put higher heat to price variation“.
Other increases
Beyond the increases in the food category, other sectors will also drive up general inflation. “For July, inflation expectations are above 7% monthly. This is due to macroeconomic and political instability, in a month where there is high seasonality due to tourism, authorized increases in regulated products”, they pointed out from LCG, and added: “However, we correct our projection of inflation by the end of the year, placing it in a floor 90% annual to December”.
“With recent events, the nominal outlook has worsened markedly. Even estimating a slowdown in the last five months of the year, to park slightly below 5% monthly, we project a floor for 2022 inflation of 85%. This new step suggests that the expected slowdown for the coming year (around 70%), will be well above the average annual figures for 2018-2021 (just under 50%)”, they added in this regard from Ecolatina.
Source: Ambito
David William is a talented author who has made a name for himself in the world of writing. He is a professional author who writes on a wide range of topics, from general interest to opinion news. David is currently working as a writer at 24 hours worlds where he brings his unique perspective and in-depth research to his articles, making them both informative and engaging.
