Below the average of 7.4% were Real estate activities, with a rise of 7.3%; Teaching, 6.3%; Financial intermediation, 2.8%; and Social and Health Services, 1.3%. In May, the only item that marked a negative result was Agriculture and Livestock, with a drop of 5.3% year-on-year.
However, analysts and business entities began to warn that due to the problems of access to foreign currency for the import of inputs, it is highly probable that in the second half of the year the activity will begin to show signs of exhaustion.
The Study Center of the Argentine Industrial Union (CEU) warned that the lack of dollars and the uncertainty that is causing the acceleration of inflation can affect the activity of the factories. “Although the first half of the year closes with good production levels, the outlook for the second half shows several elements of uncertainty,” says a CEU report. And he adds that “macroeconomic tensions deteriorated expectations regarding inflation and the foreign exchange market, with growing difficulties in accessing foreign currency for production”.
“This situation makes the supply of key inputs for industrial activity more expensive and limits it. In a global context of tensions in supply chains and rising interest rates, the foreign exchange market situation puts pressure on supplier payment chains and leads to a consequent drop in purchase orders”, states the UIA.
The report from the plant’s technical teams indicated that “these factors are also having an impact on exports and the generation of genuine foreign exchange.”. “Other elements of uncertainty are linked to the situation of aggregate demand, from the acceleration of inflation, the rise in credit and the consequent impact on consumption and investment,” says the work.
For its part, the Center for Production Studies (CEPXXI) of the Ministry of Productive Developmenthighlighted in its latest report that in May, industrial activity grew 11.9% year-on-year, but compared to April it registered a monthly fall of 1.1%. “For the next few months, activity is expected to continue to grow compared to three years ago, although at more moderate rates,” said the study center in its latest report. The advanced index of industrial activity prepared by the CEP-XXI, which is prepared based on the energy consumption of the companies reported by CAMMESA, registered a growth of just 0.3% in June, which marks the cooling of the economy .
Source: Ambito
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