What were the reasons for the fall? Ámbito spoke with different market analysts to ask them what is causing the retraction of the blue dollar and what could happen in the short term, if political instability continues.
“I think the respite from the last wheels came from the decline in financial dollars from the new regulations on the CEDEARs, which, as usual, generates short-term rebalancing of positions, and today it already gave some signs of intraday reversal in the afternoon”, he said Gustavo Ber, holder of Study Ber.
It happens that last week, given the escalation of parallel dollars, the BCRA made the decision to limit the holding of Argentine Deposit Certificates (Cedears) – Foreign paper quoted in pesos – at an availability of US$100,000 for those companies that access the foreign exchange market. In addition, it decided to include those instruments that cannot be operated in the 90 days prior to or in the 90 days following access to the official market.
For Ber, the pause generated by this rearrangement “could be barely ephemeral if strong economic announcements do not arrive soon from the fiscal, monetary and exchange front.” In this sense, the economist considered that the Government should propose a comprehensive plan “that arouses confidence” in order to aspire to correct the imbalances in time.
At the same time, he stated that the plan should have “strong political support” to calm expectations, which from his point of view are “deteriorated” and are “feedback by current inflationary and financial tensions.”
the financial analyst Salvador DiStefano He did not hesitate to affirm that this Monday’s session showed “a rare market” that, in his opinion, is awaiting definitions from the Minister of Economy, Silvina Batakisabout the meetings held in Washington with the head of the IMF, Kristalina Georgieva, and investors. This is the first visit of the head of the Palacio de Hacienda to the director of the agency.
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“I think we have to wait for the definitions or the result of the meetings that Batakis has in the United States,” said Di Stefano, noting that the market “still has a high degree of uncertainty.”
However, in his opinion, the blue dollar “is very expensive” and “should be falling to the $300 zone.” Why is it still high? For the analyst, the answer is that “there is a shadow cone in the economic scenario that continues to place us in a scenario of high uncertainty.” “I think that everything will depend on the Batakis meeting and what it brings to Argentina. There will be a trend. In the meantime, we are going to continue with ups and downs without showing a firm trend”, he stated.
The Economist Jorge Neiro linked the evolution of the blue dollar with its parallels on the Stock Exchange, noting that this Monday “it fell because there was a calmer financial day.” “In general, it tends to adjust to MEP dollar values,” he explained. Precisely the MEP dollar recorded a drop since last Thursday, from $326 to $319. While the blue fell from $337 to $322.
For Neyro, last week “there was a very strong overreaction in the MEP market”, he explained, due to the fact that there was “a lot of nervousness” in the retail sector. From Monday to Thursday it jumped from $295 to $326, to later close the week at $315, as a result of the BCRA announcements.
However, he stated that the blue “is going to continue moving in line with the dollars on the stock market.” There, he said, “a more difficult game” is played because, in his opinion, the stability of the dollar looks “precarious.” “We have to see if in the coming days or weeks it stabilizes at these values, or if the market pushes back to higher values, close to $350,” concluded Neyro.
The drop in parallel dollars was not the only sign of hope for the government. In the day, the BCRA managed to close the second consecutive day with a favorable balance in the purchase of foreign currency, ending with a positive balance of US$55 milliondespite the fact that once again foreign exchange demand for energy exceeded $100 million.
Source: Ambito
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