Economy bets on titles indexed to inflation and the dollar

Economy bets on titles indexed to inflation and the dollar

Like other market analyses, a report by the consulting firm Anker, by the former Minister of Finance and former President of the Central Bank, Luis Caputo, highlights that there is a “strong reduction in the maturity profile with the private sector in the coming months” and that “Improves credit risk in the peso curve”. According to estimates by the consulting firm, until January 2023 maturities with the private sector are around $200,000 million per month. What is called the “wall effect” in the market, which is the accumulation of commitments, begins in February of next year, when they will exceed $200,000 million. In March, they jump over $350,000 million and in April of next year they exceed $400,000 million.

Economist Christian Buteler told Ámbito Financiero that “The Treasury has a very important ally that is the stocks”. “Beyond the momentary turbulence as there was in June, the pesos have to look for yield,” he explained. Without the possibility of accessing dollars, companies try to protect themselves. Buteler pointed out that after the stardom that inflation-adjustable bonds had for more than a year, given the fear of a devaluation dollar-adjusted instruments appeared. The economist stated that “the market now asks for dollar linked” but he clarified that “with this inflationary jump, the CER bond is going to be demanded again”.

An additional element to take into account is that the Central Bank’s money desk has already stopped intervening in the secondary bond market to support the price and is now doing the reverse operation: it is selling what it bought and withdrawing pesos, sources from the market.

Thus, the Ministry of Economy came out to offer for the second tender of the month three letters and a bond tied to the dollar. First of all, there is a Bill of Liquidity with new discount (LELITE) for Common Fundsdated August 16, at a price of $875 and for an expandable amount of $20,000 million.

then propose an LEDE for October 31 with a maximum price of $858.50 per $80,000 million, expandable, whose implicit rate would be above 80%. On the other hand, with a price to be determined in the tender, a LECER as of January 31 of 2023 for $80,000 million and a LECER to May 19 $60 billion expandable.

While, The Treasury proposes to the market a Bond tied to the dollar (T2V3) a reopening, maturing on July 31, 2023, for up to US$200 million, no maximum price. This instrument is not part of the offer for the group of banks called market makers. In the first tender in July, the government guaranteed rates close to inflation. For a three-month bill, he paid 78.9% annually. For an LEDE with terms of up to 120 days, he paid 80%.

Source: Ambito

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