In relation to the expectations for this week, Albornoz assured that “the data on the labor market in the US is going to be key this week to know how the dollar is going to evolve locally, as well as Massa’s announcements, since , if these are not enough or do not mark a change in direction, the trend can be reversed”.
Likewise, in the last week, sovereign bonds in dollars managed to stop their downward trend and erased accumulated losses after the resignation of Martín Guzmán. The highest increase was represented in the GD38 by 13.7%, followed by the Bonar 2035, with increases of up to 9.6% and the GD46 by 9%.
Mauro Natalucci, financial adviser at Rava Bursátil, considered that “the rise may continue since the market had discounted everything bad in prices, that is why the yields were around 50% in dollars; prices were already at a flat, so they may continue to rise.” In any case, he warned: “It will depend on the certainty that the country generates. With the arrival of Massa, who is well regarded by the US and international markets, perhaps the market can find stability, at least in the short term. Although the economy needs deep adjustments, the expectation in the short term is important”.
Analyst Federico Glustein agreed with the analysis, pointing out that it will depend on the measures announced by the new minister. “Assuming pro-market measures, the bonds will rise as dollars enter to swell the reserves, confidence in this new instrument is recovered, in addition to appealing to other sources of financing such as guaranteed loans and the possibility of repurchasing the bonds that are in prices barely above the floor and boost them”, he stated.
In this sense, he added: “That would give it strength and predictability, because the eventuality of default is not far off. With an IRR of 41%, as they have today but which was much higher and after a monthly recovery of around 5%, after 25% in recent days, it is a good time to regenerate the framework to attract capital in a context of rising rates in the central countries”.
Source: Ambito
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