“It is very suggestive that, until now, Minister Massa has not raised the issue of the fiscal disaster with the clarity and emphasis that Batakis did.”, affirmed in its latest report the Institute for Argentine Social Development (IDESA). The work maintains that “it is indicative that, among the versions of changes, the most destabilizing areas of the public accounts (Energy, Anses, State companies) are the ones that appear least mentioned.” The consulting firm that leads the economist Jorge Colina points out that in the first half of the year the breakdown of state accounts was 2.2% of GDP. “It is expected that the new minister will have greater political support than his predecessor for being one of the leaders of the governing coalition. This support is a necessary condition, but not sufficient, to prevent the crisis from continuing to accelerate”, says IDESA.
Javier Marcus, Business Manager of the fund manager Southern Trustestimated in dialogue with Ámbito that the new minister “will try to freeze spending” But he warned that “the most urgent thing for the new economic team is to avoid a run on the exchange rate.”
“Announcing that he is going to make big cuts, I don’t think it will help him stabilize. It would not be credible,” said Marcus, who argues that Massa will most likely focus on “not increasing spending and improving financing possibilities.” For the Southern Trust analyst, “nobody assumes that social plans will be cut” but that progress will be made in cleaning up the energy sector.
Alfredo Schclarek Curuchet, associate professor at the National University of Córdoba and CONICET researcher, considered that from the point of view of the markets, they are going to be looking at whether the agreement with the International Monetary Fund (IMF) is complied with, which has the requirement of reaching a deficit of 2.5% of the GDP at the end of the year. “I get the impression that the challenges are the same as before Martín Guzmán and Matías Kulfas resigned,” he told Ámbito.
Meanwhile, in his latest report, the financial group Adcap, whose founding partner is Javier Timerman, stated that “Massa generates expectations, but there are no changes in terms of energy or fiscal deficit, at least for now.”
For this reason, the report maintains that “the greatest change will be in relation to the reserves of the Central Bank.” Adcap believes that “Massa will be bold and aggressive in his offer to the field.” He considers that, in a rapprochement with the leaders of the Liaison Table, “he could offer a special dollar to encourage liquidation and thus strengthen the BCRA’s reserves.”
Source: Ambito
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