At the end of July 2022, market analysts projected that retail inflation for the current year will be 90.2% year-on-year, that is, 14.2 percentage points -pp- higher than the forecast of the previous survey.
Worse was the forecast of those who best project this variable for the short term (TOP-10), who expect an average inflation of 94.7% yoy (15.4 pp higher than the June survey).
For July 2022, meanwhile, the median of the estimates of the current survey was 7.5% per month, while the average of the TOP-10 of the best forecasters estimates it at 7.7%.
Likewise, the REM participants revised the inflation forecasts for 2023, placing it at 76.6% yoy (12.0 pp more than the previous REM) and for 2024 at 60.0% yoy (9.8 pp higher than the previous survey). .
Regarding core inflation, those who participated in the REM forecast that it would reach 90.5% yoy at the end of 2022 (13.7 pp higher than the last survey).
For June 2022, the median of the estimates of those who participated in the previous REM survey suggested an inflation of 5.2% per month, while the data observed in that month turned out to be 5.3%.
Dollar
REM analysts corrected their projections for the nominal exchange rate. They expect the exchange rate to reach $167.16 per dollar in December 2022, that is, 62.8% more than at the end of 2021.
Those who most accurately forecast this variable with short-term horizons projected that the average nominal exchange rate for December 2022 would be $167.57, which represents an increase of 63.2% in the year.
GDP
Those who participate in the REM expect growth in Real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for 2022 of 3.4% (0.2 pp more than in the previous REM).
The TOP-10 of those who best forecast economic growth suggests an average increase in GDP for 2022 of 3.3% (maintaining with respect to the June survey). Regarding the seasonally adjusted quarterly variation of the GDP, for the second quarter of 2022 the REM participants estimated a growth of 0.5% se, which is 1.2 pp higher in relation to the previous survey (-0.7% I know).
The variation estimate corresponding to the third quarter of 2022 was corrected from -0.5% se to a contraction of 1.4% se Meanwhile, they also project a fall of 0.7% for the fourth quarter of 2022 (when a month ago they expected a null variation).
Rate
For August 2022, those who participate in the REM forecast a BADLAR rate for private banks of 57.9%, 6.8 pp higher than the average rate registered during the month of July (51.1%). There is evidence of a growing correction in the monthly projections, with forecasts for an increase to 62.0% by the end of 2022. Those who best forecast the interest rate for the short term expect it to be on average 64.3% in the last month of 2022.
Source: Ambito
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