Speaking over the weekend, Miguel Fish, the head of the BCRA confirmed his forecast that the exchange rate pressures that the market is going through are due to energy imports during the winter. “They want to present this as a dramatic adjustment situation”, said the official. The entity had to sell an average of US$100 million per day to sustain the price.
Fernando Soliño, economist and private consultant, told Ambito Financiero that “the Central Bank is betting on a strategy of progressive and controlled devaluation, which projects close to 80% to 90%, coinciding with the annual projected inflation. However, the exchange delay comes from the fixed devaluation during 2021 which was almost half of the true inflation of that year”, he recalled. “The devaluation set by Guzmán was about 25% compared to inflation, which reached 50%,” said the economist. Soliño warned that “If this delay from 2021 were adjusted to the value of the currency today, it could cause a shock. with inflationary consequences and falling expectations that the economic and political crisis would not bear without consequences”. Data from the BCRA show that in November 2019, towards the end of the government of Mauricio Macri, the official dollar was 27% depreciated and that is why Martín Guzmán had room to use it as an anchor against inflation throughout the past year.
About, the consulting firm Ecolatina says that the official dollar will continue to run at a rate of 5.1% per month, and would close the year at $165. The consultant does not believe that there will be an acceleration of the rate of depreciation of the national currency. “A devaluation with a nominality launched at 6% to 8% monthly with a Central Bank that would have a short position of US$7 billion in the futures market, without fiscal or reserve anchoring it would only speed up the nominal dynamics”, he warned.
Meanwhile, Gabriel Caamaño, from the Ledesma consultancy, said that “It is true that there is clearly a problem in the officer” due to its delay, but at the same time coexists with high parallels. Caamaño maintains that both real prices “should meet in the middle” of what marks the current gap, although he warns that all this implies in turn the implementation of “a stabilization plan”.
Source: Ambito
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