“Although the measure goes in the right direction and constitutes a positive signal for the market, in order for the calm to extend over time, rapid progress must be made with concrete measures in terms of correcting the main imbalances associated with the front fiscal-monetary and accumulation of reserves. The latter is the most pressing in the short term, in a week in which, although the negative flow of reserves moderated, the dynamics continue to be worrying”, expresses the “Monitor Semanal” of the consultant.
Free dollars this week were calm, favoring a slight reduction in the gap. The CCL (GD30) is down 0.5% in the last week and is offered at $285.19. For its part, the MEP (AL30) fell 0.7% and the blue advanced 0.7%, closing on Friday at $278.53 and $295, respectively. From the nominal maximums reached after Guzmán’s resignation and the subsequent uncertainty, the CCL fell 14.2%, while the blue decompressed 12.7% and the MEP 14.3%. Although the gaps are down more than 40 pp (CCL) from the highs of July (7/22), “they still remain at extremely high levels: around 110% to 120%,” they added.
On the official dollar, the Central also moderated the devaluation: “Thus, while in the first week of August it advanced 1.26% (at a TEM of 5.16%), this week the wholesaler climbed 1.23%, running at a monthly rate of 5.0% TEM.Although this speed is somewhat lower than that of the first 5 rounds of July (5.09% TEM MTD), it shows an acceleration compared to 4.8% last month. however, The Central will hardly be able to prevent the official from continuing to run behind prices with inflation that would exceed 6% in August”.
What do analysts say?
For Rubén Ullua, financial analyst, he indicated: “The rate hike was one of the few tools left for the Government to deal with the current scenario, in order to stop the outflow of flows to the dollar. It is a valid tool and can temporarily contain the exit of investors towards dollarized portfolios. However, the market will demand more and will be looking at the BCRA’s ability to recover reserves. In this sense, the measure will allow stabilization in the short term, but it will not be enough for the medium term”.
Diego Martínez Burzaco, head of strategy at Inviu, considered that “the rise was important, not only in response to the inflation data that was known for July, but also due to the inflationary inertia that the first days of August showed.” “We are facing an annual effective rate of almost 100%, which can contribute to a demand for investments in pesos, at least in the short term. However, so that the results are not ephemeral, it must be complemented with fiscal measures and accumulation of reserves”, he expanded.
Mauro Natalucci, from Rava Stock Exchange, did not rule out a further decline in financial dollars given the inclination of investors to the interest rate and less pressure on parallel exchange rates. However, he pointed out that “it will also depend on the expectations and credibility generated by the government and Sergio Massa in these months until December.”
Source: Ambito
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