From LCG they clarified that in the second week of the month “a new increase in the percentage of products within the basket that presented increases stood out, accelerating from 26% of the previous week to 31%”. “This result places the average of the four weeks at 27%, which means that all the products in the basket would register a price increase in just under a month”, they underlined.
In the second week of August, the divisions that increased the most were “drinks and infusions to consume at home” (3.8%); “condiments and other food products” (3.4%) and “sugar, honey, sweets and cocoa” (3%). Vegetables, meanwhile, climbed 2.1%, dairy products and eggs 0.7%. Meats, on the other hand, showed a decrease of 0.3%: In the average of the last four weeks, meat shows a rise of 3% (it is the division that increased the least in that period).
Food: other measurements and projections
Another consultant that conducts a weekly survey of food prices is Echo Go. In that sense, when analyzing the variation of the first week of August, from the firm they pointed out: “The arrival of the new Superminister seems to have brought a bit of calm to the financial markets -although with little horizon if a plan is not defined shortly – and the real economy (did not) react accordingly. After the great rises experienced during July, August begins more moderately. Thus, the survey corresponding to the first week of August exhibited a variation of 1.1% of food prices with respect to the previous week. This implies a deceleration of the rate, reducing 0.6 pp in the margin”.
“With this data and considering a variation projection of 1.4% for the remaining weeks, the inflation of food consumed at home in August would reach 5.6% per month”they argued from Eco Go.
For his part, according to Damián Di Pace, director of the consultancy Focus Market, “the first week of August does not bring good news for the price variation in the food category.” “In the first week of July, food grew at 2%; now, in August it does so at 1.7%. Little prize to go towards a path of price slowdown in basic categories. In this way, we project inflation at 6.5%, which would add it to the podium of the three highest inflation rates of the year,” added Di Pace.
In this scenario, as highlighted by CEPA when analyzing July inflation and projecting what may happen in August with the Food and Beverage category, “The situation of macroeconomic instability (particularly related to the shortage of dollars) generates a scenario where the large price makers consider it a ‘breeding ground’ for markups.”
What is expected for August inflation
With this scenario, the IPC would rise again by around 6% this month. “August inflation would stand at 6.1%, driven both by the carryover in Julysuch as the rise in prepaid (11.34%), schools in PBA (9%), train and bus fares in AMBA (40%) and expenses (between 6% and 10%)”, they pointed out from Eco Go.
For its part, from LCG they analyzed: “Now without the incidence of seasonal factors and in a context of ‘greater’ stability relative to July, our inflation projection for the month of August is 6% monthly. For December, we project an annual inflation of 95%, a level that we assume as a floor since it is consistent with a slowdown to average records of 5.7% per month for the last five months of the year”.
Meanwhile, according to the price survey of the C&T consulting firm available last week for the month of August, “they suggest that Inflation for the month would exceed 6% per month and year-on-year would be around 77%”.
“If an anti-inflationary plan is not adopted, the prospects for the year go through an increase in prices in the order of 100%.“, pointed out Víctor Beker, director of the Center for Studies of the New Economy (CENE) of the University of Belgrano, and added: “This is the greatest challenge facing the new economic leadership: to implement a coordinated and consistent plan of fiscal, monetary, foreign exchange and income measures that ensure a drastic drop in inflation. The key lies in taking this group of measures together. Any partial measure will not work”.
Source: Ambito
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