Other measurements
Another consultant that conducts a weekly survey of food prices is Eco Go. In that sense, when analyzing the variation of the first week of August, from the firm they pointed out: “The arrival of the new Superminister seems to have brought a bit of calm to the financial markets -although with little horizon if a plan is not defined shortly – and the real economy (did not) react accordingly. After the great rises experienced during July, August begins more moderately. Thus, the survey corresponding to the first week of August showed a variation of 1.1% in food prices with respect to the previous week. This implies a deceleration of the rate, reducing 0.6 pp in the margin”. “With this data and considering a variation projection of 1.4% for the remaining weeks, the inflation of food consumed at home in August would reach the 5.6% monthly”, they maintained from Eco Go. For his part, according to Damián Di Pace, director of the consulting firm Focus Market, “the first week of August does not bring good news for the variation in prices in the food category.” “In the first week of July, food grew at 2%; now, in August it does so at 1.7%. Little prize to go towards a path of price slowdown in basic categories. In this way, we project inflation at 6.5%, which would add it to the podium of the three highest inflations of the year”, added Di Pace. In this scenario, as highlighted by CEPA when analyzing inflation in July and projecting what may happen in August with the Food and Beverages category, “the situation of macroeconomic instability (particularly related to the shortage of dollars) generates a scenario where the large price makers consider it a ‘breeding ground’ for remarking.”
What is expected for August
With this scenario, the IPC would rise again by around 6% this month. “Inflation for August would be at 6.1%, driven both by the drag in the month of July, and by the rise in prepaid (11.34%), schools in PBA (9%), train and bus fares in AMBA (40%) and expenses (between 6% and 10%)”, they pointed out from Eco Go. For its part, from LCG they analyzed: “Without the incidence of seasonal factors and in a context of ‘greater’ stability relative to July, our inflation projection for the month of August is 6% monthly. For December, we project an annual inflation of 95%, a level that we assume as a floor since it is consistent with a slowdown to average records of 5.7% per month for the last five months of the year.” Meanwhile, according to the price survey of the consulting firm C&T for the month of August, “suggest that inflation for the month would exceed 6% per month and the interannual rate would be around 77%.” “If an anti-inflationary plan is not adopted, the outlook for the year goes through a price increase in the order of 100%”, said Víctor Beker, director of the Center for Studies of the New Economy (CENE) of the University of Belgrano.
Source: Ambito
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