At the same time, he pointed out the tourism balance deficit: “You have a record of tourists coming to Argentina; under normal circumstances they sold the BCRA 200 million dollars per month, today they sell 50 because they obviously go to the little tree in Florida. We outside we pay with the card because it is cheaper” and added: “The national sport is to get cheap dollars from the Central Bank.”
In relation to the alternatives being evaluated in the government, he warned: “Splitting or devaluing is not an easy decision, when you take time to face problems it is more difficult.”
“The fiscal balance is very important. Sergio Massa made announcements that some advanced and others did not. One is to try to channel the fiscal situation that had overflowed. For now we have the increase in rates, which is not immediate; a cash adjustment, that it can be bread for today and hunger for tomorrow because what needs to be lowered is the expense accrued”, analyzed.
“Subsidy payments are falling at a time when there is a record import of energy, which suggests that CAMMESA is not being paid and that generates a chain of defaults. Later, it rescheduled an important part of the debt by offering a dual bond that “If inflation continues high, it will be very expensive for the National Treasury. Lastly, a new loan from CAF appeared on the exchange issue and the loan with the IDB would be unlocked; in the rest there is little,” he added.
“There is a critical short-term issue because the BCRA has few reserves, the exchange rate gap is very high, Massa said he doesn’t want to devalue but…” added the economist.
Regarding the positive data on economic activity: “The data for July was particularly good, you end up 7% up compared to 2019.” “The flip side is that the macroeconomic situation is not sustainable. We have gone through the first half of this year with the best terms of trade in Argentine history, with energy it started to get a little muddy.” “It was natural that the economy reacted well, it could have been better if we hadn’t had inflation.”
Finally, he closed with a political analysis: “Hard Kirchnerism denied reality and now they are going to militate the adjustment. When you live kicking the ball, unless you are lucky, at some point you face reality. The government’s problem is that reality arrived long before the elections.”
Source: Ambito
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