In July alone, the Central Bank allocated US$2,281 million for the item “fuels and lubricants”, 218% more than in the same month of the previous year, according to the Indec. “60% of the increase in imports is explained by fuels that grew in quantity and price,” reported Cecilia Todesca, Secretary of International Economic Relations. In June, US$1.953 billion had been allocated (+157% year-on-year).
“In the last weeks of August, energy imports decreased, and from September onwards there will be a further drop,” added Todesca. As this newspaper learned, energy imports will be below US$1.5 billion, that is, at least US$700 million below July’s historical record. This is good news that stands out both in the Central Bank and in Economy.
Still, the drop in imports in August is not surprising. “The strongest months for imports are June and July, and August always drops a little seasonally,” explained Julián Rojo, an economist at the General Mosconi Energy Institute. Even with the preliminary data for August, Rojo assured that it is a month that continues to be one of “significant imports”. In August 2021, fuel imports had been US$794 million, almost half of what is expected for this month.
The future of imports
In fact, Massa informed the CEOs and executives of the 7 most important mass consumption companies that they have begun to lower energy purchases, so the objective he conveyed to them is to begin a more aggressive accumulation of reserves, maintain a competitive dollar and avoid a devaluation shock.
The information arose after the claims made by the executives about the difficulties in importing, given that in some cases they exceed the quota that the Central Bank enables them due to the rise in international prices. “If reserves are accumulated, Massa promised a path of normalization of imports and maintain a competitive exchange rate without disruptions,” said one of those present.
With these data, companies eagerly await changes in imports from September 30, day that the deadline for communication 7532 expires, which arranged the quotas. Upon consulting different SME businessmen, they were not so optimistic, despite the drop in energy imports. “It is only when those US$5 billion of exports that are in limbo enter the reserves that optimism will return. Lack”commented a source.
In his first conference, Massa promised an advance of fishing, agricultural and mining exports for that amount, before October, although for now, after the failure of the implementation of the soybean dollar, it is far away. In any case, the entry of dollars for another credit from the IMF is not ruled out, as confirmed by the presidential spokesperson, Gabriela Cerruti.
Fall in triangulations
Outside of energy, Economy implemented another mechanism to contain imports: Customs actions. Since the arrival of Guillermo Michel, Massa’s right-hand man, they began to make million-dollar fines and criminal complaints against the companies. In the Government they know that part of the increase in purchases abroad is explained by the exchange rate gap, which exceeds 100%, with which companies try to access the $145 dollar, and some incur in illegal underinvoicing maneuvers.
According to Customs sources, these types of complaints do not change the numbers in the aggregate, but what they are looking for when exposing specific cases of company crimes is “try to change behavior by generating risk perception”. Currently, Michel’s team is targeting 1,000 companies that import US$3 billion by triangulating billing between the US, Hong Kong, Panama, and Uruguay. As reported, triangulation fell 20% in August: between January and July, the average number of companies that triangulated was 717, while this month it was 579.
Source: Ambito
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