Economist Federico Glustein stressed that in order to reach the goal, it would have to buy between US$110 and 120 million per day until the deadline, compared to the current level of net reserves. “The outlook was quite dark with a negative balance in August close to US$800 million, but after eleven positive rounds, a slight improvement is perceived. But it will be very difficult to reach the proposed goal for the second revision. The Central Bank, then, must accumulate a total of US$4.1 billion by September 30 and due to the current pace of purchases, if the income regime does not improve, it must resort to other sources of financing to reach it, ”he analyzed. .
In this regard, Glustein added: “The disbursements from international organizations and higher income from the liquidation of agriculture and the sustained drop in demand for energy imports would help. Payments for energy imports were less than half that of July so far this month. However, the possibility of arriving is a challenge for the macro, especially considering an exchange rate split that would reduce the outflow of dollars.” For his part, Juan Manuel Franco, chief economist of the SBS Group, maintained that so far this year, the BCRA has not managed to accumulate reserves in a significant way and even “taking the starting point of 2022 that the IMF marked when sealing the program, Argentina has lost reserves from then on”. “We estimate net reserves under the IMF methodology at around US$1.14 billion. Although the unforeseen higher payments for energy imports was a factor that worked against us, we believe that a system of foreign trade incentives should be implemented that favors exports, improving the exchange rate received by producers”, he considered.
In this framework, analysts discount that the Government will seek flexibility from the IMF for the goal of the third quarter. It is worth remembering that, in the previous revision, the Fund allowed a relaxation of the quarterly goals and the accumulation objective for September was reduced by US$300 million, given the strong increases in energy as a result of the war in Ukraine.
On this point, Sebastián Menescaldi, associate director at Eco Go, pointed out: “The June figure had been below what was promised, in part because there were no transfers from the promised international organizations, which were contemplated at the closing of the agreement signed in January. . Then, with the closure of the MULC for importers in the last week of June, they managed to reach the goal. However, the question is what will happen at the end of September, because from then to today the reserves did not stop falling to approximately $5.8 billion below what they should have in September. In this framework, I see the fulfillment of the committed goal as unlikely, even by slowing down imports, so I think they will have to negotiate an easing for this quarter.”
Source: Ambito
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