With that in mind, at this time one of the possibilities that the Government is studying is that producers receive about $129 for every dollar exported of soybeans, thus bringing the price of a ton of oilseed to around $70,000, while currently in the local market they are paying between $50,000 and $55,000.
The truth is that nothing ensures that the producer sells his soybeans because the bean is the great refuge of value for farmers in times of uncertainty. In the next few days, the 2022/23 soybean campaign begins and some kind of movement is expected in the market because those who need financing to face the campaign will inevitably sell. Meanwhile, those who at the moment have financial backing will continue to pay attention to the evolution of the market and international prices.
Without any type of promotion and taking into account current international prices, foreign currency income in the ninth month of the year could be between US$2.5 billion and US$3.0 billion, well below the current needs of the BCRA to accumulate reserves and contain financial dollars.
One piece of information that could trigger a greater sale of soybeans is the possible long-range bearish fundamentals in the international market. For now, one sign is that the speculative funds came out en masse to take a position and in the last days the grain suffered strong falls. This Tuesday in the Chicago market, the September contract closed at US$555.9 after falling almost US$8 during the day and the contract US$526.4 per ton, with a fall of US$1.93 per ton.
Meanwhile, BCRA sources detailed: “The use of the 70/30 account for producers who sell soybeans was strengthened after learning that last Thursday, at the last meeting of the month, the BCRA Board of Directors had not extended the validity of the measure. The peak was recorded on Friday with 35 operations for almost $900 million, doubling what had been accumulated until that day. On Monday (48 operations) and Tuesday (83 operations) the use of the instrument was increased, reaching almost 240 operations for $2,600 million. As was being recorded, the producers only bought foreign exchange for 25% of the possibility”.
Source: Ambito
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